2017........................

[+48V]

Some solid and unspun industry insight & foresight from "my buddy" Mark Mulligan about music streaming services circa 2017.

[snip] "The distinct advantage that the next generation of streaming services will have is that they will sit on the shoulders of the streaming incumbents’ innovation. Instead of having to learn how to fix stream buffering, drive compelling curation, make streaming on mobile work and define rights holder licenses for freemium, they can take the current state of play as the starting point. They are starting the race half way through and with completely fresh legs. They come into the market without the same tech priorities of the incumbents and also without any of their institutional baggage (baggage that, whether they like it or not, shapes world views and competitive vision)."

[snip] "We are still fundamentally stuck in the music-collection-as-excel-spreadsheet paradigm. Underneath it all is the same static audio file that resided on the CD and the download. Granted, there have been some major improvements in design (such as high resolution artist images, full screen layouts and strong use of white space). Now though, is the time to apply these design ethics to streaming User Interface (UI) and User Experience (UX)."
[/snips]


Couldn't have said bitched about it better myself here. Or have I? ...

A good succinct read in his rag if you're interested in this shit.....

 

[uofmtiger]

I don't see new services springing up that have any impact on the market at all. Pandora already has plenty of "baggage", so I don't think he is referring to them. If a small, unknown, player walks onto the scene, they are facing huge competitive disadvantages. Apple's ace in the hole right now is Siri, iTunes (which I am not in love with, but it has millions of users - if not billions), and the fact that it is installed on every new iPhone/iPad.

Spotify has freemium and a huge addicted database of users that take advantage of the social aspects of the service. Spotify also comes with the advantage of being pre-installed on receivers, the Amazon echos, cars, etc.. Spotify is everywhere. Not sure Joe Schmo service would ever get a foot in the door with these people and growing a service at this point, will be very hard.

I didn't mention Google because it is a small player right now, but their Youtube Red offers the best bang for the buck and as they build up and improve Google Home, people may give them another chance. Though, I admit the Google Music app is plain vanilla.

 

[+48V]

I don't see new services springing up that have any impact on the market at all. Pandora already has plenty of "baggage", so I don't think he is referring to them. If a small, unknown, player walks onto the scene, they are facing huge competitive disadvantages.

See...or forsee? Presently I agree, it's a very shallow pool of giants today. 13 months future...?

But the gist of his article entailed forward looking qualifiers to bare his (admittedly) soothsayer take/salient predictions. Allowing that grace, (a more favorable investment atmosphere, etc.) I think it's pretty spot on. "Build it and they will come" forecasting if you will. --See 2016 streaming revenue growth.

IOW, our 'more the merrier' mantra has a glimmer of hope yet. Will these yet to be seen "new services" slay the incumbent dragons? Not likely....but what they can do is affect the market by spurring the competition up a few notches and relieve us from the Johnny copy lately 'Music as a spreadsheet" paradigm. Hello, there is a God...

Spotify will likely IPO, paid subscribers will pass the 100 million mark in Q1, playlists will boom. 2017 will build upon an upbeat 2016 in which the major labels saw streaming drive total revenue growth. This stirred the interest of big financial institutions, companies that had previously avoided the music industry like the plague. These institutions are now seriously assessing whether the market is finally ready to pay attention to.

 

[+48V]

Pandora already has plenty of "baggage"

heh....FWIW, I can assure you that several pounds of "baggage" (at least on the UI/smarts front) have been tossed overboard with Pandora's coming attraction.

 

[uofmtiger]

See...or forsee? Presently I agree, it's a very shallow pool of giants today. 13 months future...?

I don't see any indication of what he is saying and I don't foresee anyone small stepping into this market and making any impact. The question is that if a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

A player like Facebook could do something unique if they want to get in the market, but I am not sure they want to be in that market. Pandora has an uphill battle turning free users to paying users. Not as easy as it sounds.

 

[+48V]

I don't see any indication of what he is saying and I don't foresee anyone small stepping into this market and making any impact. The question is that if a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

A player like Facebook could do something unique if they want to get in the market, but I am not sure they want to be in that market. Pandora has an uphill battle turning free users to paying users. Not as easy as it sounds.

.
Hey, I'm with you man.--so please excuse the "beyond indication" devil forthwith.

1. Yes. The horizon looks deep on a myopic rifle shot calculation-- based upon yesterday's and today's crystal balls. Hard to imagine any more "players" in this space. So, same as it ever was forever? Remember though, we're playing with shotguns here.

2. Who said anything about the "new guys" being "small"?

Heh...Zuckerberg most likely is jizzing his jeans... like yesterday. Add...now that the most of heavy lifting (royalties) has/is/well on it's way to being settled/sorted, it's by no means far-fetched to imagine there indeed may be a paradigm shifting amount of willingness on the part of the Labels along with an unheard of amount of "new found" gold-rush "start-up"/piss wind capital on the streets.

Writing is emblazoned on the wall that streaming will supplant the gross share of conventional revenue for the music industry. Shit is ripe, the people are thirsty, there will be more players.

Between the lines of his post is that there's a holy shit-ton of $ to be had with the depreciation of today's competing/conventional formats...and interests* beyond the present status quo. Yes, the established players will vacuum up their lion share. But I gather what he's envisioning/proposing is that there will be enough spilling over the sides of the pot as to allow for a few more dirt bags & buzzards. Enough to affect how the standing giants butter their bread? I fuking hope so.

3. Yeah, wistful and/or wishful, I find his crystal ball take both informed & enlightening.....TimalTell.


*....spreadsheets....

 

[uofmtiger]

I understand wishful thinking because the more in the market the better for the consumer. That isn't lost on me. If Spotify was making a killing in profits, I would be on board with you. However, no one is making money in this area, so it really begs the question why anyone new would want to get in at this point (not talking about Pandora, they are already in the market, so it is a natural fit and really the only way for them to go.) Look at all of Tidal's issues as an example of why you would want to stick on the sidelines.

Facebook, to me, is the only big question mark or where I would place my hope for something new that could catch on. They are in the position to truly do something unique, but we will see what happens.

You caption read "2017", so I assumed you were talking about the near future. Just don't see anything changing the paradigm in the near future (with the possible exception noted above).