Are CDs on the way out?

[jetblack]

Are CDs real close to becoming obsolete?

When I see a replacement format on the market, then I'll believe it. I hear about MP3, but that's around more for convenience, than for quality (IMHO). LP's are not on their way out, neither are CD's.

 

[goldear]

It is very clear to me that the CD format is in a death spiral right now. What I'm observing right now reminds me of what happened early 90s with LPs. You could still find LPs, but the selection was decreasing rapidly and less and less new music was being released on LP. By about 1992, virtually nobody was selling LPs anymore. I'd estimate that at the present rate of decline that almost nobody will be releasing new material on CDs within 5 years.

Unfortunately SACDs are becoming as rare as hens teeth, and as much as I truly love this format; the future of music it aint.

Everybody I know wants to download music now days, and even some of the most dedicated audiophiles I know are in the process of replacing their vast CD collections with music servers. The difference is that these people search for high-res downloads in the same way that I search for SACDs.

 

[baretta]

I think that digital recorded music is going to be going entirely online in the not too distant future. Bandwidth is only going to keep improving, and it will only be a matter of time before you'll be able to download an entire lossless format album in a second or two. Illegally traded digital files will likely stay with the MP3, (or similar) as the general populace (though certainly not this crowd) doesn't care about fidelity to a high degree.

That being said, other mediums will survive in niche markets. In the right area (trendy, affluent) a used/new CD store could still do well. Record stores as well, especially online.

What ramifications does this have? The end of albums. People cherry pick digital files out of albums. A few artists have openly said they're no longer going to produce albums, only singles.

Of course, this doesn't work for everyone, but, I believe, this is a fairly small audience. These people are the reason the LP has come back into style. They're tangible. They have great cover art. They actually have some resell value, which I argue digital files really do not. Personally, I feel like my future as a music listener will be deeper into the LP format with a few digital files here and there.

CDs ultimately won't hold up to the LP format, even if CDs are inherently better. They lack the LP's tangibility. You'll be able to get the same files online. There is money to be made in LPs, I believe, for a long time, to niche markets, who want tangible liner notes, actual albums, and a deeper connection to the music.

My 2 cents.

Why are LPs more tangible? Aren't a lot of the new recordings made with digital recorders? Then mixed digitally? Would the digitally recorded, digitally mixed LP version still sound better than the CD version? Now if the LPs were made in the older analog process all the way from start to finish. And then played on a high end audiophile system I could see how that would be very appealing. I'm not sure if it would better than a good high end digital system though.

 

[baretta]

To classic rock listeners, perhaps the LP makes more sense. Too many CDs with no liner notes, nothin'!

I can get pictures, notes, etc. on the web. Ninety-nine percent of my CDs sound as good or better than my LPs. I've compared almost all of them. It's hard to get LP versions of my favorite rock albums. Most just aren't made anymore. And the used ones on the web are in pretty bad shape. I like buying the CD version of an album where they went back to the original two track masters and made the CDs from that. They sound great.

 

[baretta]

...my CDP has a new laser, a new spare and spare belts. It is safe to say I could get 30 years out of my CDP as is. The sound is excellent, so why get rid of it all?

You shouldn't! :thmbsp:

Just to get the same music on files that I can easily rip when the technology is there? What happens if the hard drive or storage device fails? You have to download again...

I think that's what the music companies are hoping for.

 

[shipdriver]

But will the music sound as good as the CD format? I know change is coming. But will the new change sound as good as what came before it?

Downloadable music files are freed from the limitations of CD disc capacity (and CD player readability). I anticipate a mix of low-res MP3 type files along with lossless (same as CD) and hi-res files (which, yes, are better than CD). It also frees one from needing a dedicated player for every new format, which hurt SACD and DVD-A (one factor among many). It is much easier for companies to distribute multiple quality levels of an album electronically, bypassing disc (of various kinds) pressing altogether. Nothing prevents archiving your downloaded music, liner notes, album art, etc. on a DVD-R or BD-R. Although some places only let you download something once (e.g. Amazon), most allow you re-download (e.g. Zune Marketplace).

 

[SBEEZ]

I can get pictures, notes, etc. on the web. Ninety-nine percent of my CDs sound as good or better than my LPs. I've compared almost all of them. It's hard to get LP versions of my favorite rock albums. Most just aren't made anymore. And the used ones on the web are in pretty bad shape. I like buying the CD version of an album where they went back to the original two track masters and made the CDs from that. They sound great.

I accidentally opened the age-old can of worms here in comparing vinyl and CDs. I'm going no further here, as this has been more than addressed.

CDs are falling because they offer music in a format that can be generally downloaded online instantaneously. I'm talking about the "average" music buyer--the folks that are causing the mass exodus from the format-- not the folks here. Will they ever fall to fates like the 8track? Probably not anytime too soon, because they do offer digital files in a tangible form. By tangible, I mean a form you can pick up and feel in your hands.

The current trends are an upswing in digital downloads and an upswing in streaming media. Lots of folks are using Pandora and other software. This will just increase as network coverages improve.

 

[mrt2]

But will the music sound as good as the CD format? I know change is coming. But will the new change sound as good as what came before it?

Yes. While I haven't done it, I know the technology exists today to save huge music libraries on a harddrive. If you use with a quality DAC, it has the potential to sound better than most cd players.

 

[ScramMan2]

Only garbage is available at the above mentioned stores with very rare exception.

"Worst" Buy does have a pretty good selection of music, it does vary by store though. You're right about the other two.

I was able to get a deal on the Neil Young archive CD box set with their "rewards" program.

 

[guiller]

IThe difference is that these people search for high-res downloads in the same way that I search for SACDs.

Unfortunately, there seems to be no interest (actually I am totally ignorant on this!) in the audio manufacturers to propose a new higher-resolution standard beyond SACD, like BlueRay audio or something of this sort. It' s a pity, though. Serious music collectors care a lot about rare works, unknown repertoire, new or rediscovered music.

 

[mrt2]

I accidentally opened the age-old can of worms here in comparing vinyl and CDs. I'm going no further here, as this has been more than addressed.

CDs are falling because they offer music in a format that can be generally downloaded online instantaneously. I'm talking about the "average" music buyer--the folks that are causing the mass exodus from the format-- not the folks here. Will they ever fall to fates like the 8track? Probably not anytime too soon, because they do offer digital files in a tangible form. By tangible, I mean a form you can pick up and feel in your hands.

The current trends are an upswing in digital downloads and an upswing in streaming media. Lots of folks are using Pandora and other software. This will just increase as network coverages improve.

I understand that people have been switching from cds to either mp3s or streaming media like Pandora. I use an mp3 player for the gym, occasionally use it in my office (connected to an old integrated0 but not my home system.

I think a lot of people are being shortsighted. Just as a lot of folks foolishly dumped lps prematurely, they are doing the same here. There is a lot of music in those uncompressed cds and by dumping them, they are locking themselves into lossy cd formats. When better quality file formats come along, smart people who saved their cds will be able to rip their cds to the new formats, whereas those who ripped at lossy mp3s will have to buy the same music again.

I also think mega book stores like Borders and B & N are foolish to reduce their stock of cds. While I didn't buy all my cds at Borders, I used to stop into Borders to look through cds, maybe buy a couple, then go buy some books or magazines. These days, I seldom set foot in Borders since they cut back on cds.

 

[mrt2]

Unfortunately, there seems to be no interest in the audio manufacturers to propose a new higher-resolution standard beyond SACD, like BlueRay audio or something of this sort.

SACD was yet another missed marketing opportunity by Sony, which seems to succeed as a company despite its many mistakes.

I still remember the excitement I felt when I first heard it. Being a late adopter, told myself that as soon as the labels got past reissues of a few well worn classics, i.e. Kind of Blue, and made SACD the default choice for all reissues and new music, I would start to switch over. By 2004-2005, it became clear that this was not happening, so I decided to just resume acquiring cds.

 

[baretta]

Downloadable music files are freed from the limitations of CD disc capacity (and CD player readability). I anticipate a mix of low-res MP3 type files along with lossless (same as CD) and hi-res files (which, yes, are better than CD). It also frees one from needing a dedicated player for every new format, which hurt SACD and DVD-A (one factor among many). It is much easier for companies to distribute multiple quality levels of an album electronically, bypassing disc (of various kinds) pressing altogether. Nothing prevents archiving your downloaded music, liner notes, album art, etc. on a DVD-R or BD-R. Although some places only let you download something once (e.g. Amazon), most allow you re-download (e.g. Zune Marketplace).

Ok, thank you. I feel better about the future of music now. :thmbsp:

 

[baretta]

I accidentally opened the age-old can of worms here in comparing vinyl and CDs. I'm going no further here, as this has been more than addressed.

CDs are falling because they offer music in a format that can be generally downloaded online instantaneously. I'm talking about the "average" music buyer--the folks that are causing the mass exodus from the format-- not the folks here. Will they ever fall to fates like the 8track? Probably not anytime too soon, because they do offer digital files in a tangible form. By tangible, I mean a form you can pick up and feel in your hands.

The current trends are an upswing in digital downloads and an upswing in streaming media. Lots of folks are using Pandora and other software. This will just increase as network coverages improve.

I know what you mean. I've only bought my music on LPs, some rare instances cassette, and CDs. I've never stolen music from illegal file sharing. I have a computer with two DVD/CD burners and I don't even know how to operate it yet. I'm getting too old to keep up with all of this stuff. I remember my cousin saying about twenty years ago that the CD's artwork and pictures were too small. And I said I know it. But the music sounded better. And the CDs would tend to last longer.

 

[FrankyF]

The statistics say that cd sales are coming down on the last years, due to sales of online music, and iTunes has become the third largest music retailer in many countries.

 

[andy]

I don't see CDs going anywhere for a LONG time. Like AM radio, there are just too many CD players out there to ignore (particularly in cars). I can see the bulk of music shifting to downloads, but I honestly believe that CDs will continue to be the most popular physical format. Music is disposable to most people (always has been), but as long as there are music collectors, there will be CDs. Vinyl has its appeal to a certain market, but it's too expensive to make, and there are a lot of people who don't want to deal with it.

I keep hearing about high-res downloads replacing CDs, but where are these high-res downloads? I haven't even heard of any. Even uncompressed 16/44.1 downloads are exceedingly rare, and most people have plenty of bandwidth for that.

I listen to a type of music where most bands are lucky to sell over a 1000 copies of an album, but they keep pressing CDs.

 

[Brett a]

Seems like we pretty much all agree to some extent. With differences caused much by semantics.

The CD is well on it's way out. (or perhaps it's already gone and we're waving at it as it walks down the driveway.)

Obsolescence might be a different issue. I think used CDs and CD players will be around for a long time to come---as Andy just made the comparison to the AM radio---I think that's about right.

No doubt the present and future is in downloads. There are several places already making full "mastering" quality resolutions (24bit 48KHz) available online. i hope we see more of this. And it might be important to recognize ourselves as the market that will make it happen (or not).

I also think it's fun to see the LP survive as every other recording distribution technology to come along since electricity falls into obsolescence.

 

[BostonDave]

It took me about 10 years to start buying CDs because I thought I had too large of an investment in vinyl (about 300 albums). In 1994 I bought my first CD changer and by
'96 my TT was on a shelf in the closet. Now I've got close to 3000 CDs (a lot of them CDRs). I'd been saving digital music on my hard drive since around 2004. I just recently broke down and invested in a network music system (a couple of Roku Soundbridges) and just last week completed ripping my entire CD collection. I haven't acquired a new CD in a couple of months.

The big convenience with CDs was that I could easily grab a CD and take it in the car with me. I have vintage stereos all over the house and had to maintain a stable of CD players (damn things break down rather frequently - mostly cheap 90's products).

Now with networked music I can access my entire collection from any stereo in the house, do quick searches by artist, album, song, genre etc, queue up songlists, control what is playing anywhere in the house from a wireless laptop (or handheld device) from anywhere in (or near) the house. I can also make my library available to the internet and can thus access my entire collection from pretty much anywhere - like my PC at work, or a friend's house.

The only drawback so far is easily having music available in the car. Copying MP3s to play on the car stereo feels like an interrum solution. I'm waiting for cost effective dashboard internet I guess.

So personally, being someone who was heavily invested in CD technology for about 15 years, I can see the writing on the wall - for my situation at least.

I do still think there is some quality advantage with CDs, but that is probably more a function of the equipment used to play them than any advantage gained by the storage medium. Entry level (price wise) DACs and transport methods will improve in quality as technology advances and quickly close any current quality gap. With lossless storage of your 1s and 0s music servers are well positioned to perfectly reproduce the music they store into the future. Someday (soon) we may hear people sermonizing about the relative 'warmth' of laser as compared to straight digital reproduction.

 

[ron-c]

CDs will be around for a while. Of course I am listening to a Nakamichi 480 playing a 20 year old Stevie Ray Vahn tape right now so..

Tahnks,
Ron-C

 

[eljr]

"

I was able to get a deal on the Neil Young archive CD box set with their "rewards" program.

that's because you know what you are doing. Us other stiffs, not so much.