when does the vintage electronic bubble burst?

[Kneedeepinit]

It is getting harder to find real bargains out there. It seems that everyone has the knowledge to find out what a mint condition brand X amplifier/speaker/turntable etc is worth. The thrift stores put out decent equipment by mistake or want market value.

Everyone thinks their 1970's 8 track console is vintage and highly desirable. I saw a pretty ugly one with plastic wood panneling details at a garage sale and the owner felt it was a bargain at $150.

Everyone seems to think that if it has tubes, then it must be worth a fortune, even if there are almost no places around where it can be refurbished to a usable condition. How many people not on this site actually have the knowledge / resources to refurbish a tube amp?

I don't spend a lot of time looking anymore. If a good deal falls into my lap, I will jump but the scores are too few to spend the time looking for them. I wonder how many people are buying the vintage stuff now as an investment or flip opportunity, only to have it sit in the basement for the next 10 years?

I wonder what our hobby is going to look like in 5-10 years?

 

[240sx4u]

What is "your" hobby?

There are many facets of this hobby. Some buy to collect, some buy to listen, some buy because it's cheap.

It's interesting. Eventually the bottom WILL fall out of the 70s audio market, and I'll wager the 80s/90s stuff takes it's place on the collectors shelves.

 

[Blue Shadow]

The thrift stores put out decent equipment by mistake or want market value.

And there is a problem selling stuff for market value?

Everyone thinks their 1970's 8 track console is vintage and highly desirable. I saw a pretty ugly one with plastic wood panneling details at a garage sale and the owner felt it was a bargain at $150.

Wishful thinking. They need to do more research

Everyone seems to think that if it has tubes, then it must be worth a fortune, even if there are almost no places around where it can be refurbished to a usable condition. How many people not on this site actually have the knowledge / resources to refurbish a tube amp?

I'd say there are plenty of folks out there that mess with tube gear and don't AK at all. There are many places that can repair and rebuilt the units, just maybe not many near you. There is a large contingent that wants tubes...makes em worth a fortune, sometimes.

I wonder how many people are buying the vintage stuff now as an investment or flip opportunity, only to have it sit in the basement for the next 10 years?

There are flippers out there that are making a living dealing in vintage whether it be gear, clothing, cars, clocks whatever. Seems it is the AK contingent with a hundred units (or 100 receivers and then 100s more units) that are the ones that are buying to stuff in the basement for years and years. Flippers want cash flow, buy and then sell.

I wonder what our hobby is going to look like in 5-10 years?

It will look identical to the muscle car craze with prices going up (economy allowing) and up and up until those that wanted this gear as kids and young adults get done playing in the hobby they left during the work years. There is lots more to it but I expect the prices for vintage gear to rise for years to come before it starts to fall. The disposable income and the folks that lusted for this gear when new need to dry up. I don't see a huge effect on this market from the younger generations except in turntables and records.

Good luck with your quest to obtain gear at under market value, something we all like to do but not all of us insist on to participate in this hobby.

 

[coonmanx]

Buyers are becoming more savvy out there about vintage audio equipment. It used to be that a person could easily find a decent vintage integrated amplifier on the Bay but these days prices have gone up and selection and quality has gone down. You can still get lucky but timing is everything.

Simple law of supply and demand.

 

[240sx4u]

There is no shortage of inexpensive high quality gear, it just doesn't have wood sides!

 

[Pandovski]

Buyer awareness good, seller awareness bad?

 

[kansei]

Just like anything else, quality holds value. If you're stocking up on TOTL, name brand gear, you are not likely to lose money. There may be a dip in the value, but the prices will recover.

I don't believe for a second that the McIntosh MC30 or a MC75 will lose value. The same goes for the HK Citation I/II or the Marantz 7/8/9. Obviously, the silly eBay prices won't hold, but I'm not buying at those prices anyway.

 

[koogar519]

I think a lot of people look at what they can get vintage quality wise compared to what they would need to spend today with the new stuff to get at least equivalent. If I can snatch say a late 70s early 80s Marantz amp say for example for 500 compared to 2k new or so, I am willing to pursue that avenue. So for a lot of people maybe its a financial decison that causes them to chase the vintage.?

 

[BOUXY]

It is getting harder to find real bargains out there. It seems that everyone has the knowledge to find out what a mint condition brand X amplifier/speaker/turntable etc is worth. The thrift stores put out decent equipment by mistake or want market value.

Everyone thinks their 1970's 8 track console is vintage and highly desirable. I saw a pretty ugly one with plastic wood panneling details at a garage sale and the owner felt it was a bargain at $150.

Everyone seems to think that if it has tubes, then it must be worth a fortune, even if there are almost no places around where it can be refurbished to a usable condition. How many people not on this site actually have the knowledge / resources to refurbish a tube amp?

I don't spend a lot of time looking anymore. If a good deal falls into my lap, I will jump but the scores are too few to spend the time looking for them. I wonder how many people are buying the vintage stuff now as an investment or flip opportunity, only to have it sit in the basement for the next 10 years?

I wonder what our hobby is going to look like in 5-10 years?

Hard? Maybe in Calgary and other places but here in Winterpeg the used Vintage market is still going strong for some of us here at least and I suspect will continue to do so for quite a while yet!Just look at other types of Antiques/Vintage pieces,some of the 50-100+ yrs old stuff still continues on albeit scarcer that's true but they are still being bought and sold everywhere and like Vintage Audio Pieces there will always be those who dabble in them:thmbsp:

 

[Omegaman]

There is tons of vintage quality gear out there

It is just being hoarded by individuals

There will be another great gear sell off phase once we die out and our heirs sell it all off at bargain basement prices after first asking way too much from listening to us rave

 

[slowpat]

.
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I don't believe for a second that the McIntosh MC30 or a MC75 will lose value. The same goes for the HK Citation I/II or the Marantz 7/8/9.
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I think there are several aspects to our hobby. I used to go for function over form just to try out the gear after reading about it on AK. There's not much resale value there with all the faults that I can live with - but not my buyers.

As has been said many times before, electronics can be repaired but the cosmetics you can only do so much. So, the MC30 or MC75 in great cosmetic condition will always go up in value even if the electronics need repair. There's a pair of MC30 on local CL that has been refurbished, but chassis are totally pitted and rusted, and no one wants them. You can see that in the eBay completed listings as well, condition, condition, condition....but that's how bubbles develop...

 

[oldvinyldude]

I don't think there is a bubble-just baby boomers like me who can now afford to indulge in audio.

I think prices will continue to go up for some time still, until my generation is no longer around to create demand.

True-it is harder to get bargains than before. However, when one considers the inflation adjusted pricing for top line gear that has been properly restored, or compares the pricing of this gear to top line new gear, things are not really skewed.

Aside from vintage 'fad' pieces, prices are not out of line.

 

[pognoot]

I don't see prices ever going down.

 

[jn229]

Anyone buying vintage as an investment wants to be careful. The majority of stereo enthusiast is fifty years of age or better, their buying will cease with time. The bottom will fall out of the vintage audio market. I feel the same way about vintage cars; ask your sons if they would prefer a ’55 shoe box (if you do not know what a ’55 shoe box is then you have proved my point) or a WRX; I think the majority of youth would prefer the Subaru. Ask your kids if they want your old two channel Pioneer receiver or your last five channel video receiver. I know some of you will disagree stating your kids love two channel, collect vinyl and eye your present speakers waiting for your next upgrade. But; they’re our children, raised with stereo system in the home; they do not represent the majority of the next buying generation.

I have vintage Kenwood L-07 mono blocks in my main system. They perform way above their price point and to date have been reliable. They are holding their value but I doubt if they will be worth the $500.00 I have invested in ten years (that’s if they’re still working). Everything has a shelf life or within our hobby, everything has a rack life.

When is the bubble to burst? I would think sooner then you think.

 

[blhagstrom]

I see an increase in interest and knowlege, probably due to the internet and this place.

As long as young-uns can get their hands on working gear, or get help, like here, to get it going and keep it working, interest will remain.

I predict the killer will be when the gear reaches an age when it needs repair and you can't find anyone to do it, or the cost is too high or the parts become unobtainium. There is already a "price" point for major repair. Smaller units are falling below that and being left for dead.

Pricing will play a roll. High prices in thrift store will dampen sales, but also make folk curious. Prices get high, people dig out the stuff and try to sell it. It doesn't sell, they drop the price, lose interest, etc.. prices drop down. I've seen it before. Eventually the naive overpriced sellers give it up and we go from there. Interest remains in a small group, but may drop off completely.

 

[slow_jazz]

I'm really surprised the bubble hasn't burst on cars yet.

With the big 3 turning out new Mustangs, Camaro's, Challengers I have no desire to purchase an old one. When I think of the Boss Mustang I used to own and putting plugs in it constantly I don't miss them at all.

 

[Ths364]

Omegaman (post #10) nailed it.

 

[jn229]

I'm really surprised the bubble hasn't burst on cars yet.

With the big 3 turning out new Mustangs, Camaro's, Challengers I have no desire to purchase an old one. When I think of the Boss Mustang I used to own and putting plugs in it constantly I don't miss them at all.

Plugs! You lucky dog. My W-31 ate clutches to the point were I could change them out in 45 minutes, in a lane way. Coarse I had a shad tree . . . .lol

 

[noogies]

I don't see prices ever going down.

A lot of people said that about the real estate market in 2007 as they took out HELOCs on their houses ...

 

[Wigwam Jones]

It is getting harder to find real bargains out there. It seems that everyone has the knowledge to find out what a mint condition brand X amplifier/speaker/turntable etc is worth. The thrift stores put out decent equipment by mistake or want market value.

I do not find that to be the case, but I have seen it from time to time. Isolated instances.

Everyone thinks their 1970's 8 track console is vintage and highly desirable. I saw a pretty ugly one with plastic wood panneling details at a garage sale and the owner felt it was a bargain at $150.

I've seen that also, but that's not unusual in any situation. I've seen people try to sell rustbucket four-door 1970s cars for two-door 1960s musclecar prices. If the price is too high, no one will buy it, but it's the seller's right to charge whatever they want.

Everyone seems to think that if it has tubes, then it must be worth a fortune, even if there are almost no places around where it can be refurbished to a usable condition. How many people not on this site actually have the knowledge / resources to refurbish a tube amp?

I think that's a self-selecting problem. I suspect that people interested in tube amps either have the skills to fix them or know how to reach out to people who can.

I don't spend a lot of time looking anymore. If a good deal falls into my lap, I will jump but the scores are too few to spend the time looking for them. I wonder how many people are buying the vintage stuff now as an investment or flip opportunity, only to have it sit in the basement for the next 10 years?

I wonder what our hobby is going to look like in 5-10 years?

The same way it does now, for the most part.

This is the perennial post. Not to criticize, I understand what you're feeling, I think, but this is nothing new. It falls under the lifeboat category to me.

What's the lifeboat category? When you're in the water, you want to get in the boat. When you're in the boat, you don't want anyone else getting in the boat, because you fear the boat will overload and sink.

So we get interested in vintage X or Y or Z, and prices are amazingly low, and we're dazzled that people have no idea how cool all this X and Y and Z are, and we find online forums filled with people who also like X and Y and Z, and as popularity grows, scarcity increases, prices go up, and we bitch about it.

I can't say I actually 'look' for 'scroes', but since I go to thrift shops looking for vinyl, I do see them sometimes. Mostly, the prices I see are more than reasonable, and some are insanely low. Mistake in pricing by the shop? Dunno, but the ones I go to don't seem to be making any mistakes, they do it consistently, so apparently they intend to do it.

Kind of reminds me of the Yogi Berra quote: "Nobody goes there anymore; it's too crowded."