Has vinyl peaked?

[JohnVF]

Great thread John, I'll punch in with some stats.

Well, I too like most of us have the impression that vinyl is kicking major digital ass and if the 70's were Greko-Roman, the late 00's are its Renaissance.

Here is how it all looks like to us music lovers and audiophiles.

Why do the charts stop right before what is usually recognized as the vinyl resurgence really taking off (2007-2008)? Not saying it would be huge but relatively speaking, that's when things started to pick up.

I'm not arguing that vinyl was ever a big part of the music scene, but it HAS been a huge part of the scene for those who are really into music. Independent record stores are almost unrecognizable to what they were 8 years ago here. Where new pressings were once a small section, around here they're almost the whole store now. But within that niche market, I think its peaked. It may stay where it is, but I really see nowhere for it to grow. I think the market is saturated, and I think especially the high-end audio market is burning out.

 

[tubeboob]

After a hiatus, vinyl has been exposed to a new generation of music aficionados who will, hopefully, continue with the quest for better sound . . . vinyl.

I listened to a "high end" entry level turntable played through a Rotel integrated and some B&W speakers. Damn nice . . . retrieval of detail was superb , as was stereo separation etc.

Simply superb . . . and in a world that seems full of the mundane . . . well there is hope . . .

Cheers

 

[JoeESP9]

I cleaned up on the albums everyone dumped in the 90's. It was fish in a barrel for a while back then. But I was finally forced to adopt CD's for new material.

Today I have 2 completely different collections one is vinyl and one is CD. I did not replace any of my vinyl with CD's and today I have zero interest in replacing my CD's with vinyl reissues.

Now with that said as I'm picking up on the CD's that people are dumping if the masses drop vinyl again? I will gladly clean up for a second time. :thmbsp:

Marc mc

I did exactly the same thing when others were dumping their vinyl. I'll do the same thing all over again with vinyl and/or CDs.

 

[Pandovski]

Why do the charts stop right before what is usually recognized as the vinyl resurgence really taking off (2007-2008)? Not saying it would be huge but relatively speaking, that's when things started to pick up.

The Nielsen one is 2011 and the others RIAA stats from 2007-2008. So we got the full vinyl life span covered well I think. So far at 4 million its a collectors niche market.

Digital is towering away. We just need a decade to pass for the good research stats to come in.

 

[ehoove]

Since a lot of my music library is in vinyl format, I have a vinyl rig in each of my systems. However the upgraded CD/SACD players in my rigs have made CD/SACD's much more enjoyable, however they cost much more than $200! The reality of high quality Vinyl playback is the cost of the Table, Arm, Cartridge, and Phono Stage. Most are not willing to invest in their rigs to truly appreciate just what vinyl can offer, and that is fine. The high end community will continue to embrace it for what it can offer at a high performance level, or because of the huge library of media they own in that format. The fact that young folks are embracing it is wonderful, because they are the lifeblood of our hobby. Any medium that exposes them to analog is great in my thinking. Is it going away? I think not. IMHO
Regards,
Jim

 

[131east23]

I'm placing this in general audio because I feel it would be more biased to ponder it in the turntable forum.

I've just been noticing in my travels in the past year that there's less and less discussion, out and about, in regards to turntables, cartridges, etc. Everybody is talking about DACs. Even I am. So maybe I'm more in tune to it, as my interest has shifted. But I hardly ever see a turntable playing in a store.

I see that kids are into it like they've always been, and probably even more so. But as far as high-end playback, I don't really see much going on at the sales level (just in observation, I don't have sales figures). And I fear that a bunch of tables are flooding the market in response to a demand that was there 2 years ago, that is overestimated now.

I'm just curious what everybody else sees where they are. There seems to be a slackening of interest here in Chicago in the audio scene. Even at the local AK get together, I don't think anybody played a record or brought a record player.

Has it peaked? Will it plateau? Will it grow or decline?

What a good question and what a good time to ponder this. What would my plans be if this niche industry started to disappear again...

A good place to look is Ebay. Used TT prices are down. In the last month I've seen a couple of Garrard 301's go for around 1200 dollars when they typically fetch close to 1800. Even the 401 has dropped to a point where you can easily afford one if you wanted it. I have been following these prices for years and saw a peak in price right before christmas. But right now, if you want old TT's like Thorens, Garrard etc. it might be time to start looking as I think their demand, and demand for vintage TT's in general is waning.

Also, as much as the younger generation is interested in vinyl I think the resurgence has lots to do with people like me, 52 years old, pulling my old records and TT out and getting involved again. I think it has basically peaked, might have another year or two, but I think it's a passing phase.

 

[Tom Brennan]

All the audiophiles I hang around with are far more interested in digital than in LPs. Oh, everyone has a record player or two but they get little use.

I'm thinking of buying a new high quality record player but not because I need one or will even use it much; I just want one. It's kind'a senseless really, I should spend the money on a vacation or something.

 

[theophile]

Generally, the 'resurgence' is fad driven. Baby boomers who walked away from records and youngsters who like fads and the novelty of vinyls (<teehee ).

The die-hards such as myself who were always buying vinyl through the late '80s early '90s; the ones who never went over to CDs, will need to stick with buying cartridges and phono stages because our music collection is totally tied-up in records.

Remember that the statistics only reflect new vinyl sales figures. there's a healthy second-hand market whose figures are essentially ignored.

There is no other way of looking at the market for all things vinyl except as a tiny niche. The only high fidelity niche which is smaller, is SACD and even smaller the defunct DVD-A.

 

[timofred]

I get the impression it's on its way back up.

 

[poppachubby]

As digital begins to arrive to a place that's convincing amongst audiophiles; DACS have been creating a splash. Frankly i think nothing has changed over the last few years with vinyl, which isn't saying much.

 

[bobbyonions]

The only reason records are still around is because they can sound as good as any other technology.Their tactile reality is very attractive and I think there will be enough people around of all ages who want that for years to come. There is nothing like a record and the gizmo that plays it.

If digital offered sound well above and beyond what a record can do, than I think vinyl would die off pretty quickly. I don't see that happening.

 

[winters860]

Great thread John, I'll punch in with some stats.

Nielson's revised numbers (notice that they're only counting FY '11 in the graph, rather than the calendar year) say that 3.9 million new records were sold. In 2012, those numbers were up 19% to 4.6 million.

Obviously, it's got to peak sometime, but has that happened yet? I'd expect there to be a year or two of stagnant growth beforehand, which we haven't seen yet.

Has vinyl peaked? I wouldn't put hard money on it. Anyone who expects the current rate of growth to continue is crazy, but to dismissing it as a fad ignores the hard data.

I interpret the availability of new 90's catalog title pressings not as the industry scraping bottom, but of a format in bloom.

Anecdotal speculation on the state of high-end analog sales and promotion is just that. Like it or not, audiophiles are not the driving force behind the vinyl renaissance.

 

[steelglam]

I probably don't hang around enough folks with super high-end gear to know whether or not this is true, but just from going into the shops around my area in the last 8 or so years, I never got the sense that vinyl returned to a preeminent place in the audiophile's market regardless of the vinyl resurgence. Yes, there were more turntables in these shops than there were in the 90s, but the digital floor setups seemed to outnumber the vinyl/analog ones 3-to-1. And this is throughout the aforementioned vinyl resurgence period.

From my observation, in the 2000s, new digital formats and DACs have always held a preeminent place over vinyl in the high-end market, regardless of the vinyl resurgence in the population as a whole and even though there were more turntables in the high-end market in the 2000s than during the 90s.

I think the vinyl resurgence has been mostly driven by younger people that probably do not have high-end audio gear.

 

[JohnVF]

I think the vinyl resurgence has been mostly driven by younger people that probably do not have high-end audio gear.

I completely agree. Any given record store in any city I go to, is full of people 20-35 and any given audio store is maybe 35-60. Its like at some point you stop listening to music and start listening to gear .

 

[jeremyjustic]

I wonder what it is about vinyl that makes people obsessed with it's downfall. People have insisted the format will soon meet its demise since the introduction of cd's in 1983. Like the apocalypse, its unlikely to happen in our lifetime. Maybe , instead of strapping on a sandwich board sign that reads "the end is near" we should all put on a record and enjoy vinyl's resilience.

 

[theophile]

Playing records at a standard that commands respect from the digital majority demands dedication, above average components ( read: great turntable, great arm, great cartridge, great phono stage, that all synergise with one another).

In other words, it's hard work. One either has the benefit of years of working at it or the benefit of having tons of gear going though your system in order to arrive a that special combination. Just having the components and none of the know-how of what it takes to get the best out of them, will only garner so-so results. Having the know-how and average sounding components will only garner so-so results.

Really special vinyl replay, the type of vinyl replay that makes persevering in the face of the best of digital a rational pursuit, requires more than jumping on the bandwagon or renewing a lost interest in that which you gave-up on 30 years ago. Many of the young adopters will eventually fall away and most of those who are dusting off the records that they have not played for decades will give-up in frustration with the first cantilever they destroy with a cardigan sleeve.

I'm a vinyl-man, but only those determined to imitate ostriches refuse to see that with the advent of 192/24 and 2x DSD recorders, the first nail in the eventual coffin of vinyl has been hammered in. There will be better digital formats than those ones available in the future, and when they get here even the very best of vinyl replay will have no further performance advantage over the new digital formats.

I actually look forward to that day because of the convenience of digital, the ease of storing digital information and hopefully the portability of the future state of the art digital players and media.

Until then I will persevere with my records. Even after then I will persevere with getting the best out of my records, because I'd want to listen to them and they can sound spectacular.

 

[JohnVF]

I hope it doesn't seem like I'm obsessed with its downfall. I've been a record collector since 1991 or so, when I was 17, when my mom and dad bought me Led Zeppelin I at a flea market and told me they had thousands of records for $1, and my friends and I should go. That began one of the few passions I've had that have never ceased to occupy my time. My turntable obsession didn't come about until 7 years ago.

I'm merely observing that, in audio circles, I'm noticing a sudden decline in interest in the format. It still seems to be there with the kids buying records, but in the audio-scene, it looks to be declining, or it seems to be here in Chicago. Its not dead, my friend just sold two tables at his shop this week from passers by.

I don't think it will go away but I wouldn't be sad, except for the impact on record stores, if it went back to the crowd that was buying 5-8 years ago, as prices were more controlled and the people into it were frankly a nicer lot of people.

 

[hbrocks]

Peak Vinyl?
This tied to the oil crisis?

 

[DougMac]

Nielson's revised numbers (notice that they're only counting FY '11 in the graph, rather than the calendar year) say that 3.9 million new records were sold. In 2012, those numbers were up 19% to 4.6 million.

Let's give those numbers some perspective. In 1920, Edison Records, which was a small disc label compared to Columbia and Victor, sold 7,596,856 records. In 1919, the total record sales broke 100 million for the first time. In 1930, after the stock market crash and the intrusion of radio, record sales had fallen to below 10 million.

I bought ten albums yesterday, 49 cents apiece. They were mostly classical, but one was a mint condition copy of "The Pretender" by Jackson Browne. While I was washing them, I did a little catch up on cleaning my backlog of dirty 78's. One was a Hank Williams that sounds great!

I'm still having fun.

 

[Larry I]

There will be an absolute limit on the number of new records pressed based on the limited number or presses that are in working order (no new machines are being built). Some of the current machines will become unrepairable, even further limiting the revival.

As far as collecting old records is concerned, that will remain an interest because so many recordings, particularly rock, jazz and pop, sound much better in the original release than in subsequent digital releases (it doesn't matter what is the reason for this -- whether this is the result of poor digital mastering, deterioration of the master tapes or inherent superiority of the medium). I certainly would prefer that digital reissues improve on the original, but, that does not happen often enough to make lp collecting more than a collector hobby.