Not great. My wife is hospital Pharmacist. 20 % of hospital staff is out with covid. That happened within last 3 weeks.
Several of our friends and relatives are in healthcare and reporting similar stats.
I think initial covid outbreak in the beginning wiped out majority of weaker and compromised immune system population WORLDWIDE.
That is the reason there are not nearly as many death cases. Still, very dangerous virus and who knows what long term health complications it may cause.
Just like with seasonal flu, some people will get sick and others won't but eventually we all will get it in one form or another.
you are actually closer than you think. we think the next iteration of the model will have decent approximation of the total toll and this is the readers digest why:
the reconciled intersection of 2 graphed sets lays out the death rate rather neatly.
set 1: with the exception of a few people hiding out, we know the numbers and ages of every person in the USA. if we assign your last birthday as your age, you can make a graph of 0, 1, 2,3 etc on the x axis up to the oldest person in the US and the y axis is the number of people at that age. all of our babies are in the 0, and it climbs slightly until a couple peaks around my age (baby boomers) and then curtails sharply in numbers until it starts to tail off asymptotically over 100. (how many 100's ,101's etc up to 115? 114?
we learn quickly that appx 16.5% of the US population is 65+ SS recipients!
set 2:now make a graph of each age range that got covid, and died. It starts off real low in numbers and really does not move with much effect until the 30's but over all still low. it still climbs slowly and then around age 60 the curve rises sharply and then levels back off and even falls - not everyone who gets it dies, and the percentage of the population falls off as it ages. the rise is around the baby boomers who are the largest of any population segment, for now.
what we end up with is 75%ish of the deaths are retirees. But not ALL retirees die. the chance of a bad outcome is enhanced by the presence of a co-morbidity, but the presence of a co morbidity is not a constant or even linear, co morbidy + age are a factor - duh, ask any insurance agent.
so let me go out on a limb and surmise that since it is AFTER nov3rd, we can dispense with the bullshit. If the number of 'eligible to die' people using a combination of age, comorbidity, covid diminishes, CONTRARY to MSM reports, it does not select other age groups, meaning when the type 2 diabetes 80 year olds are depleted, average 50 year olds are not next. It will NOT be a constant rate or percentage. Right now for example wit ha few clicks we can read that south dakota is in dire straights. But, almost 80% of the deaths thus far have been retirees - bingo. Even still in south dakota if you catch covid at age 80, you have a greater than 95% chance of walking away.
throwing a curve into this is something that Pasteur (France) has been gnawing on, they feel that the actual exposure rate to date is appx 20 times that of what is visible. about a month ago I attended a talk with Dr Fauci and one of the questions many of us had was just that. He declined to answer as it was BEFORE Nov 3rd but if this is true, at the current rate of symptomatic infections, the population of 'eligible to die' will start to deplete and no, it wont be replenished thru spite but rather natural means - as we all age and **** starts to fall off.
Full disclosure: earlier this year, the MSM was not just into scaring children and their teachers. It worked pretty well on adults too such that every person in command and control asked a simple question: will we even have people on mission? Well doctors know wondrous things about disease and illness and guts and stuff, but they generally know dick about math. so officially I am unofficially working on this little project with many others in a cooperative collaboration lending a calculator when needed but mostly programming skill in dead languages (like asm, basic, fortran, pascal, C) in order to convert formulas and integrals into arrays and the like....boring stuff. we are trying to get something relatively effective out soon as pretty much in late january our participation will end.
so still, this is the real stuff for the elderly and infirm. our concern should be THERE and not necessarily at school or costco.... Its easier to protect 16.5% of the population than 100%
