usedto
Lunatic Member
Home schooling project?There is so much seriously wrong with this graph. The primary one being the source “JP Morgan quantitative and Derivatives Strategy”
Alaska Reopens Fully Friday
- Thread starter Snow
- Start date
- Status
It is very interesting to look at the numbers, someone Alobar I think mentioned Sweden with approx 4k deaths and 32k cases then you look at Qatar with 37k cases and only 16 deaths? somehow they must have super duper immune systems there in Qatar or someone is fudging the numbers.
Of course numbers only tell part of the story because Sweden still has 23k active cases so if you go by those numbers it appears Sweden has a very high death rate 4k dead out of 9k that had an outcome 5k have recovered, however that percentage will certainly drop when the tally is complete i'm sure. Then also there is the fact that when enough Swedes get sick and recovered the likely hood of a second wave of infections is minimal. A lot will depend on whether or not they have closed their borders I think.
I have no idea what the best policy was or is and it may well differ from country to country. I think much like my closed thread about one way aisles one size may not fit all. What may work well in one large store may not work well in a much smaller store. If for example Mumbai has 70,000 people per square mile what would work in Sweden with 24 people per square mile may well be different. In any case I am very pleased I am not in charge of making those kinds of decisions.
Of course numbers only tell part of the story because Sweden still has 23k active cases so if you go by those numbers it appears Sweden has a very high death rate 4k dead out of 9k that had an outcome 5k have recovered, however that percentage will certainly drop when the tally is complete i'm sure. Then also there is the fact that when enough Swedes get sick and recovered the likely hood of a second wave of infections is minimal. A lot will depend on whether or not they have closed their borders I think.
I have no idea what the best policy was or is and it may well differ from country to country. I think much like my closed thread about one way aisles one size may not fit all. What may work well in one large store may not work well in a much smaller store. If for example Mumbai has 70,000 people per square mile what would work in Sweden with 24 people per square mile may well be different. In any case I am very pleased I am not in charge of making those kinds of decisions.
Last edited:
Djcoolray
Addicted Member
I’m not trying to get political....
But I understand what people think they need to do. The bad thing is the virus doesn’t care...
In all the places all over the world that reopened without all people wearing masks in public places without a method of sanitizing surfaces within the confines of buildings, infections increased along with the amount of deaths. Those places that sanitized and wore masks as a constant variable had few increases of infection and few deaths. I don’t understand not wanting to include a methodology that safeguards the public. The Ford plant in Chicago I think, had to close the second day it reopened as they just tried to go back to how they did things before. I don’t understand why people psychologically need to continue on as they did before without the added protection to save the lives of those with underlying medical conditions within their own families. Why the need to resist change by playing down the urgency of the situation. Have we as a people suffered so greatly that the majority of us don’t have the capacity to deal with the situation and fall into denial. We are heading for 100,000 deaths and we are opening up without any methodology to limit exposure and increased deaths which just means 200,000 deaths will be soon on the way.
I’m not trying to fight with anyone and I have a degree in human biology so I’m not taking out of my four points of contact. But why do we as a people remain in the Stone Age ....theoretically !!!
Why is it that just doing what we prefer to do without any concessions to what is actually happening so important ??
I understand that the lack of methodology prior to the lockdown made things painful for so many people but to resist planning to do something better that benefits everyone does not pass the common sense test.
We maybe at a point of history were the trait of common sense is trumped by being piously subjective......because there is more than one way to do anything.
But I understand what people think they need to do. The bad thing is the virus doesn’t care...
In all the places all over the world that reopened without all people wearing masks in public places without a method of sanitizing surfaces within the confines of buildings, infections increased along with the amount of deaths. Those places that sanitized and wore masks as a constant variable had few increases of infection and few deaths. I don’t understand not wanting to include a methodology that safeguards the public. The Ford plant in Chicago I think, had to close the second day it reopened as they just tried to go back to how they did things before. I don’t understand why people psychologically need to continue on as they did before without the added protection to save the lives of those with underlying medical conditions within their own families. Why the need to resist change by playing down the urgency of the situation. Have we as a people suffered so greatly that the majority of us don’t have the capacity to deal with the situation and fall into denial. We are heading for 100,000 deaths and we are opening up without any methodology to limit exposure and increased deaths which just means 200,000 deaths will be soon on the way.
I’m not trying to fight with anyone and I have a degree in human biology so I’m not taking out of my four points of contact. But why do we as a people remain in the Stone Age ....theoretically !!!
Why is it that just doing what we prefer to do without any concessions to what is actually happening so important ??
I understand that the lack of methodology prior to the lockdown made things painful for so many people but to resist planning to do something better that benefits everyone does not pass the common sense test.
We maybe at a point of history were the trait of common sense is trumped by being piously subjective......because there is more than one way to do anything.
Last edited:
usedto
Lunatic Member
I think everyone is fudging numbers.
2DualsNotEnough
Addicted Member
I'm the definition of high risk,and luckily I'm in the very fortunate position where I can stay home and still have a roof over my head,have health insurance,and a monthly check.My wife has been able to work from home,or only go in a few days a week,and still get full time pay(school district).
Here in Phoenix,just going to the grocery store is an exercise in rolling the dice for me.I stayed home,just going to Dialysis for about 6 weeks.Then last weekend I went shopping with my wife.Id say about 75% of shoppers wore no mask,no gloves,and didn't practice social distancing.I love shopping,but had to make the decision to hold off on doing that again for a while.My wife has had Asthma most of her life,but has to roll the dice because of my situation.
These people are just increasing the odds of us getting sick,just to pick up needed supplies.I know freedom isn't free,but does it have to be lethal so that people don't have the inconvenience of doing what's right for others?
End of rant.
Here in Phoenix,just going to the grocery store is an exercise in rolling the dice for me.I stayed home,just going to Dialysis for about 6 weeks.Then last weekend I went shopping with my wife.Id say about 75% of shoppers wore no mask,no gloves,and didn't practice social distancing.I love shopping,but had to make the decision to hold off on doing that again for a while.My wife has had Asthma most of her life,but has to roll the dice because of my situation.
These people are just increasing the odds of us getting sick,just to pick up needed supplies.I know freedom isn't free,but does it have to be lethal so that people don't have the inconvenience of doing what's right for others?
End of rant.
just FWIW, if a person has a co-morbidity, that means they are at greater risk of the reaction to the cytokine storm....these are the patients that for the vast vast majority, die in this phase.
1 cv19 virus entering your body does not mean you get it. You would have to have a zeroed out immune system to suffer that. The notion of time and dosage (much like radiation) has now entered the discussion. if you get a little bit, you body will see it and kill it. Its like cancer. we *all* have cancer. prolly every week if not day. But our body quickly kills these rogue cells. In some, and usually with other circumstances, the body does not and....
It is now being discussed that if you are exposed to cv19 on a small basis, over and over - like the course of months, your body learns to kill it. we are seeing more and more evidence of this as we find more and more people with past infections they didnt know about, or never got. In other words, its not the boogeyman once advertised, it does behave like every other virus, its just new to picture. the only positive note is that while herd immunity takes a long time (or never in case of another coronavirus known as the cold), it occurs relatively quickly with this one.
as we have learned, the best thing you can do is get outside in the sun, the worst thing you can do is stay inside. In places like NYC the two are essentially synonymous, but fortunately for most of us, we dont live in NYC. where I am at now, we have the same number of cases - total, that we did april 1 and all will fit into a suburban. much of the USA is the same.
If R0 (pronounced 'are not') is REALLY 6, then the numbers say we have all been exposed, most significantly more than once. now that 3 weeks have passed on a bug that has a 3-10 day incubation, as they said 2 days ago in GA:
For that to be true, and if the R0 rate is true, then everything you were told above has to also be true...cannot have it both ways. Enjoy life as much as you can but common sense precautions will save you. get out there and skin that game with your teeth.
1 cv19 virus entering your body does not mean you get it. You would have to have a zeroed out immune system to suffer that. The notion of time and dosage (much like radiation) has now entered the discussion. if you get a little bit, you body will see it and kill it. Its like cancer. we *all* have cancer. prolly every week if not day. But our body quickly kills these rogue cells. In some, and usually with other circumstances, the body does not and....
It is now being discussed that if you are exposed to cv19 on a small basis, over and over - like the course of months, your body learns to kill it. we are seeing more and more evidence of this as we find more and more people with past infections they didnt know about, or never got. In other words, its not the boogeyman once advertised, it does behave like every other virus, its just new to picture. the only positive note is that while herd immunity takes a long time (or never in case of another coronavirus known as the cold), it occurs relatively quickly with this one.
as we have learned, the best thing you can do is get outside in the sun, the worst thing you can do is stay inside. In places like NYC the two are essentially synonymous, but fortunately for most of us, we dont live in NYC. where I am at now, we have the same number of cases - total, that we did april 1 and all will fit into a suburban. much of the USA is the same.
If R0 (pronounced 'are not') is REALLY 6, then the numbers say we have all been exposed, most significantly more than once. now that 3 weeks have passed on a bug that has a 3-10 day incubation, as they said 2 days ago in GA:
For that to be true, and if the R0 rate is true, then everything you were told above has to also be true...cannot have it both ways. Enjoy life as much as you can but common sense precautions will save you. get out there and skin that game with your teeth.
Is this the data you refer to from Georgia?
“The Georgia Department of Public Health is apologizing for a processing error that caused the number of COVID-19 cases to decrease at some point over the weekend.
In a tweet, DPH said it inadvertently included 231 serologic test results among the positive cases.
Serologic tests are blood tests that look for antibodies and are used to find out how many people have had Covid-19 by.
DPH said results from these tests are considered probable and not included in their confirmed totals.
As a result of the error, COVID-19 cases in Georgia suddenly decreased between reporting periods as officials realized their error.”
“The Georgia Department of Public Health is apologizing for a processing error that caused the number of COVID-19 cases to decrease at some point over the weekend.
In a tweet, DPH said it inadvertently included 231 serologic test results among the positive cases.
Serologic tests are blood tests that look for antibodies and are used to find out how many people have had Covid-19 by.
DPH said results from these tests are considered probable and not included in their confirmed totals.
As a result of the error, COVID-19 cases in Georgia suddenly decreased between reporting periods as officials realized their error.”
no, this is not a daily trend but rather a a 3 week macro trend, or as macro as 3 weeks can be. since we know everyone has been exposed at least once (well we dont KNOW that, but we can INFER that from the same tools that are inferring everything else) 3 weeks is more than enough time to drive a sharp sustained upwards spike. there is time later to prove this wrong but here and elsewhere in the country the same holds.
while what, 80% of the deaths are concentrated at age 64+, just being 64+ is not the kiss of death. co morbidity means those people that died overwhelmingly had *something else* wrong as well, diabetes, copd, recent chemo etc which means they cannot survive the natural reaction in the lungs (the cytokine storm you hear about) while you hear more in the news about the random 16 year old that passes, the facts remain the vast vast majority are elder with factors....aka co morbidity. Of course where I am they were caught listing traffic accidents as cv19 so people still play games...
in alaska, they put old people on ice floes and send them to russia so they are in no danger ;-)
Pio1980
AK Member
See the latest news, statistics, maps and visualizations of the coronavirus pandemic, in the U.S. and around the globe. https://coronavirus.smartnews.com/u...ource=coronavirus-smartnews&utm_medium=social
fredgarvin
Super Member
Our state, oregon, is doing a measured reopening by county or region. None are being totally reopened but it is a partial, gradual reopening. My county was just approved today for a partial reopening. I don't know the details of that. To qualify for that a county must show a declining infection rate. In our county the deaths, which I have followed, were around 100 last check, and almost every one was a person well over eighty. Most of them from assisted or senior living centers. My wife and I both had the virus in March and April, I don't want it again although it wasn't as bad as any flu I've had but lasted much longer/ Then you have the worry of being hospitalized, which doesn't work out so well for a large percentage.
Pio1980
AK Member
This posting was intended a general statement, rather than a response to a specific post. There's a lot of speculation, projection, and just plain wishful thinking based on woefully insufficient or patently false data from specious sources. We will know what we know when we get sufficient data to make a determination at that time.
I think the problem (perhaps even the devil himself) is in the statistics themselves. That and the reliability of the tests, the availability of them, as well as the human error in implementing them.
Covid19 Death Figures “A Substantial Over-Estimate”
Then there are the various ways in which the stats are kept. Many countries, including Sweden, the UK don't keep consistent stats on those who survive infection. Each country is doing its own thing, stat wise, and comparing the differences is misleading.
Then there are the tests themselves. What some are starting to believe is a big part of the problem as well. What was chalked up as the 'mystery' of CV19 in how a person can get infected, then test negative, and a few days later again test positive was early on attributed to how we may never get immunity (bad news for the vaccine) from it, that it somehow will keep attacking again and again. But now it is starting to be realized that the tests themselves are likely to be the culprit. One of the tests, the one that checks for live virus, it can be pushed hard enough to create a false positive. That test is not simply a binary or yes/no situation, but rather has many different ways to be implemented and interpreted. , and the other, gets false positives from parts of the virus that are dead but left over from the infection.
One way false positives occur is when someone with symptoms shows up and the doctors strongly think it is CV19. They often "push" the test in order to get a positive result as a false positive is safer in that it only inconveniences the patient where a false neg actually puts the patient back into society to spread the disease. Since the tests themselves are not binary, there is a wide variety (gray area) where its results can be ambiguous.
https://towardsdatascience.com/stat...onavirus-is-difficult-to-contain-e113b5c0967c
https://www.livescience.com/how-coronavirus-tests-work.html
Then there are the nursing homes, where a high percentage of deaths occur. These are most often sealed up, and doctors don't even visit them for fear of bringing the virus in, or out. Often a death cause is assigned from a video conference from a nursing home staff who has little or no education in medicine who describes what he/she feels are symptoms that could be CV19, or it could be the flu. A doctor on the other end of the video feed, perhaps thousands of miles away makes the call, most often it will say Corvid on the death certificate.
2011etec
Super Member
Snow,in my area which is called Algoma District we have had a whopping 18 cases ,zero in hospital.Our district is fairly large but not heavily populated but my town is a border town also.Nobody in any of our old folks homes has contracted the virus thank god! Of course our betters will say that's because we shut down but im very skeptical of that Give it 2 or 3 years and this little blip will be a distant memory and im willing to bet things will be right back to normal as if this never happened.For good or bad us humans have very short memories and a very resilient sprit.
I can surely sympathize with your situation. That can't be easy. I will just say one thing where I think we are way out there on the wrong track. The trillions of "bailout dollars being given out, much of it to those who don't even need it (big corporations), it should be that a tiny fraction of that amount could be spent taking care of our most vulnerable. Delivery of needed food and supplies, medical needs etc should be a top priority! It would do probably the most to lower the death count of any dollar being spent. There simply is no reason why this isn't even being considered with what we know now about the virus. No, it isn't an "equal opportunity" virus at all. 95% of the population , including school kids are virtually safe from infection complications. This is a fact.
A reminder, a failing, crashing economy is an equal opportunity killer for 95% of us if we keep this mass quarantine going. This was supposed to be a short term thing, a few weeks to not overwhelm the hospitals. The data this was based on was false, there were no millions of dead people. The difference between lockdown and non lockdown countries are there but in the grand scheme, very insignificant. But it takes a functioning economy to keep the hospitals open, the research ongoing etc. If we kill the economy like we are well onto doing, we wont have any tools to fight this and the next bug that comes along, let alone feed ourselves.
Djcoolray
Addicted Member
The sad thing about the Covid 19 situation is the subjective manipulation of data and that’s the only reason I only mention deaths as a method of measuring what is happening. It seems subjectivity that everything in our lives is being manipulated for one reason or another. While the only truth is what is happening to people due to everything that is happening combined. The truth of the matter may never become public knowledge. We don’t have an honest free press in this country and most people don’t realize that they can go online and read about what is happening from countries that do.
- Status