• The move to the new server is done. There are some software and database maintenance updates in process. This has us passing the hat around to help out. We appreciate any donations. Seriously, even a dollar helps. The payment page may be found here - https://www.audiokarma.org/support.html

Coronavirus Is Evolving

Status
Not open for further replies.
icenine said:
You leave out the fact that 695,000 deaths occurred in the USA from the Spanish flu during this "mutating away."
Click to expand...

Of course SF was far more severe in terms of rate and numbers. Remember, population then was about a third of what it is today. Contrast with today's C19 numbers shows how effective our response has been.
 
Statistics by default tell a story the author wants to tell, I am not a chart or graph person as every one can easily be picked apart.
 
Last edited:
chicks said:
My daily walk / jog is hardly "punishing". My BMI is excellent, and my VO2 max is excellent for a male 18-25. I'm over 65. Diet and exercise, healthy lifestyle. Nothing extreme. I intend for my body to be able to fight this virus off should it ever come my way.
Click to expand...
I am overweight, on insulin, and don't really exercise except for when I walk from my car to the Naval Hospital where I work. I had COVID in July and survived.
People younger than me and healthier than me have been killed by this disease. Just be careful there are no hard and fast rules on this can effect a person.
SoCal Sam said:
Of course SF was far more severe in terms of rate and numbers. Remember, population then was about a third of what it is today. Contrast with today's C19 numbers shows how effective our response has been.
Click to expand...
We haven't seen the death toll from the current out of control spike.
 
icenine said:
I am overweight, on insulin, and don't really exercise except for when I walk from my car to the Naval Hospital where I work. I had COVID in July and survived.
People younger than me and healthier than me have been killed by this disease. Just be careful there are no hard and fast rules on this can effect a person.

We haven't seen the death toll from the current out of control spike.
Click to expand...

Here is the problem with screamers. You failed to mention the positives. Two vaccines are ready with over 90% effectiveness. This rapid success did not occur in with SF. Humanity has done well.
 
One of the reasons that presents problems with statistical modeling of this disease is the prevalence of inconsistent responses by country and then by state. Talk about variables.
 
SolderIron said:
Truth is you are sheep (that is being polite) unless you are very rich or a dictator.
Click to expand...

That is not a true statement.. unless you believe it to be..
I have lived without wealth all my life, and always will( monetarily speaking).. And I have the power to be the individual that I am, and exercise that power every day.. I will not blindly follow the rest of the herd off a cliff..
And if (being polite) you are one that believes that, I can't help you..
 
sKiZo said:
. I for one don't have a problem with the status quo until we're certified over the hump on the pandemic.
Click to expand...
may I ask, who is going to do this declaration? right now, the published data is focusing on how many + cases there are and nothing else. well to be fair they do say how many have died but are very careful not to tell you WHO these people are (I dont mean joe smith, jane doe but rather school age kids? gen x? middle age workers? geezers?

the question that should be asked (and is only asked as a sidebar for voluntary work for agencies that should know better) is 'what is the exposure to this? as in downside - projected unfavorable outcomes.'

If we had a virus that only produced a day of shits and giggles but no one died - would anyone care? in this case we do have people dying, but we dont have RANDOM people dying, instead we have a fairly sharply defined subject group meaning for one of the rare times, and answer can be given as to 'who do you think will......?'

there is no need to maximize disorganization, which only serves to divert attention away from where it is needed. thats actually true for any event, this one just happens to be elevated (over elevated?) to the top

everyone is so whipped into a tizzy t hey are sitting around plucking plums outta their butts and restating misinformation that has no business being stated in the first place. set your browser to mozilla, set your search engine to yahoo, and go get some data OUTSIDE of the USA. In the US, sadly, reliable data is only available on certain dates
 
NH-MAN said:
I have no idea what that means.
Click to expand...
there is some old saying "if you want to hear G-d laugh, tell him your plans"

mull on that for a while. so whenever someone says to you "I am the master of......" you just reply "Heard G-d laugh lately?"
 
SoCal Sam said:
Here is the problem with screamers. You failed to mention the positives. Two vaccines are ready with over 90% effectiveness. This rapid success did not occur in with SF. Humanity has done well.
Click to expand...
It's not over to the fat lady sings.
You probably won't be seeing the needle until March. Still a long time away relative to the pandemic.
botrytis said:
You forget we have WAY BETTER health care than then. At that time, they didn't even recognize viruses. But, still there were areas that had no issues like the US did. The reason it was called the 'Spanish Flu' was the Spanish government told their citizens everything and held nothing back. They bounced back better than the US who did the same thing we are doing during this Pandemic. Idiots think it is fake, etc.

Also the 695K deaths was in 2 years not 9 months....

President Hoover dies from complication from the Spanish Flu also.
Click to expand...
We do have way better health care if you have access....I don't see your point at all.
If we had done as good a job as Germany has we should be at 60,000 deaths right now adjusted for our population differences.
 
mkane said:
I've tried. Seems nothing works. I used to be 155 in 78' and have gone uphill ever since and it's not my wife's cooking.
Click to expand...

I worked 6 days a week for 30 years until my body just can't do it anymore (pain). Wet from head to toe with sweat everyday. I was never perfect by the "Chart" 6 foot /205 lbs for years. I have a gut, but I was not going to come home and exercise after physically busting ass all day. IMHO we are not all built according to a chart.

One guy I worked with his weight went up when he ate food, went down when he ate grass, sat behind a desk, polished his abnormally white teeth and looked at himself all day, when he wasn't bragging. I'm so glad I don't have to hear that anymore.
 
NH-MAN said:
Kind of funny for one to believe what others read in their country is fact any more than we do ours. I have worked in many other countries and they bitch and moan just as much as we do.
Click to expand...
they do, but generally, right now in 2020, they are not purposefully skewing or mis-stating data into to push?

and therein lies the rub. If HHS, NIH, FDA, CDC etc want something that spews BS, then keep feeding it BS. Its hard to work with people that say one thing 1 on 1, but when the tv cameras light up, say something totally different.. which statement was a lie?
 
likebike23 said:
This number is changing daily and not for the better, so I don't know exactly what to make of it. Sure, if expressed this way your number makes it look like Covid is a minuscule problem, but is it?

Maybe that was the point of your post? To make people question the usefulness of statistics?

I think that is pretty important to actually try to understand what a statistic is trying to tell you and whether or not the info is useful. As for your stat, I personally don't find the information it's telling me to be particularly useful in gauging the threat of the virus.
The stat is simple telling the rate of death in the US population of people who died from Covid 19 complications. It is what it is that day.
Using "confirmed cases" is not accurate in the least as it doesn't reflect the huge numbers of those that have not been tested and are carriers.
Showing the stat on how many died in 2019, from all cases, and comparing to the final 2020 tally of total deaths for all cases will show the degree of difference Covid 19 made.



The information you presented is only a snapshot based on the current infections which are only 3.72% of the US population having been infected (based on 12.2 million confirmed cases). If we took 12.2 million confirmed cases and 256k deaths we would see that 2.1% or .0209 deaths occurred in confirmed cases.

We could conservatively extrapolate this data to your stat and see the differences. Let's say 70% of Americans get infected (a pretty widely accepted rate for herd immunity), that would be 229.7 million people infected. Let's say that we get better at treating Covid and see an improvement to 1.5% of cases resulting in death. That would be 3,446,000 deaths.

So if we plug that number (3,446,000 deaths) into your stat we get .0105 (1.05% or 1 in 100)of the US population will die of Covid. That is considerably more than .000744 (.074%) mortality

Is that completely accurate or useful info to assess the risk of Covid? I dont know, but I think it's more useful than a snapshot of a rapidly moving target. I'm sure there are way more variables to consider such as the effect of vaccines, changes in attitudes, changes in the virus, etc.

It's complicated and I'm not a scientist or expert at statistics but I'm trying at least to make sense of the info presented to me.
Click to expand...

The stat is simple telling the rate of death in the US population of people who died from Covid 19 complications. It is what it is that day.
Using "confirmed cases" is not accurate in the least as it doesn't reflect the huge numbers of those that have not been tested and are carriers.
Showing the stat on how many died in 2019, from all cases, and comparing to the final 2020 tally of total deaths for all cases will show the degree of difference Covid 19 made.
 
Beatnik said:
I worked 6 days a week for 30 years until my body just can't do it anymore (pain). Wet from head to toe with sweat everyday. I was never perfect by the "Chart" 6 foot /205 lbs for years. I have a gut, but I was not going to come home and exercise after physically busting ass all day. IMHO we are not all built according to a chart.
Click to expand...

I really never paid attention to the charts, just how I felt.. but.. I am at that point where my body can't do as much as my mind says I can..
I hurt almost everyday from work.. Have even asked the company to slow me down.. We have some new employees, and I told them one of em is gonna take my place.. Its not time for me to give up yet, but they will do the attic crawls, up and down ladders, lifting 86" tv's up to a wall mount above the fireplace.. etc..
I'll be there for support, advice, whatever.. and I'll be the 'firefighter', handling the service calls, and such.. and when I'm 103 years old, I may retire.. :thumbsup:
 
icenine said:
It's not over to the fat lady sings.
You probably won't be seeing the needle until March. Still a long time away relative to the pandemic.

We do have way better health care if you have access....I don't see your point at all.
If we had done as good a job as Germany has we should be at 60,000 deaths right now adjusted for our population differences.
Click to expand...
we also report differently in the US so that makes a worldwide model IMPOSSIBLE. Laymans version: my dad has on his death certificate renal failure renal carcinoma. Kidney cancer. the cancer made his kidneys not kidneys. so what REALLY killed him was the effects of no longer having the filtering. My mother on the other hand, died of an acute sepsis. why? the cancer she had and bone marrow xplant came too late and without bone marrow, your days are numbered. In both bases, a cancer was what they had, but in one case it directly affected him, in another it did not. Our standard in the US is to test for CV19 post mortem and if found: +1

BUT silly **** like 2 people who got run over by a semi when on motorcycle also got counted. they just so happened to test + post mortem. mebbe the thinking is if they didnt have cv19 they would have driven better?

This is what happens - way too much - when you inject narrative. I have been told that if we reported like japan, we would have perhaps 50K deaths. which country should change? depends eh?
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom