Coronavirus Is Evolving

[Andyman]

Maybe because with our obesity pandemic someone being close too a healthy weight does not look normal any more

Just a thought

Or maybe the new normal is overweight. At 5' 9" I too should be in the 160s and am overweight at 173. But being out and about I see a whole lot of folks bigger than me. And even in a lot of commercials we see folks easily overweight and often obese.
A few weeks back the CDC linked obesity to Covid-19 fatalities, but it seems to get swept aside in favor of other indicators, most likely for the usual reasons.

 

[mkane]

I'm 5'8" 183 and I don'''''''t eat hardly anything.

 

[Beatnik]

I'm 5'8" 183 and I don'''''''t eat hardly anything.

Maybe you should just not eat at all to comply with The Chart.

 

[GChief]

A few weeks back the CDC linked obesity to Covid-19 fatalities, but it seems to get swept aside in favor of other indicators, most likely for the usual reasons.

It a touchy subject when 30 something % (maybe higher now) of a population is morbidly obese. I am sure some think it’s body shaming

 

[likebike23]

As of today, .0007439024 of the US population has died from Covid 19 complications.

This number is changing daily and not for the better, so I don't know exactly what to make of it. Sure, if expressed this way your number makes it look like Covid is a minuscule problem, but is it?

Maybe that was the point of your post? To make people question the usefulness of statistics?

I think that is pretty important to actually try to understand what a statistic is trying to tell you and whether or not the info is useful. As for your stat, I personally don't find the information it's telling me to be particularly useful in gauging the threat of the virus.

The information you presented is only a snapshot based on the current infections which are only 3.72% of the US population having been infected (based on 12.2 million confirmed cases). If we took 12.2 million confirmed cases and 256k deaths we would see that 2.1% or .0209 deaths occurred in confirmed cases.

We could conservatively extrapolate this data to your stat and see the differences. Let's say 70% of Americans get infected (a pretty widely accepted rate for herd immunity), that would be 229.7 million people infected. Let's say that we get better at treating Covid and see an improvement to 1.5% of cases resulting in death. That would be 3,446,000 deaths.

So if we plug that number (3,446,000 deaths) into your stat we get .0105 (1.05% or 1 in 100)of the US population will die of Covid. That is considerably more than .000744 (.074%) mortality

Is that completely accurate or useful info to assess the risk of Covid? I dont know, but I think it's more useful than a snapshot of a rapidly moving target. I'm sure there are way more variables to consider such as the effect of vaccines, changes in attitudes, changes in the virus, etc.

It's complicated and I'm not a scientist or expert at statistics but I'm trying at least to make sense of the info presented to me.

 

[mkane]

Maybe you should just not eat at all to comply with The Chart.

I've tried. Seems nothing works. I used to be 155 in 78' and have gone uphill ever since and it's not my wife's cooking.

 

[chicks]

The weight charts and BMI are still based on the 20th century population. That's when most people did manual labour and had a less nutritious diet. We the lifestyle we have today, it's virtually impossible to maintain 20th century BMI without a punishing workout routine.

My daily walk / jog is hardly "punishing". My BMI is excellent, and my VO2 max is excellent for a male 18-25. I'm over 65. Diet and exercise, healthy lifestyle. Nothing extreme. I intend for my body to be able to fight this virus off should it ever come my way.

 

[GChief]

The weight charts and BMI are still based on the 20th century population. That's when most people did manual labour and had a less nutritious diet. We the lifestyle we have today, it's virtually impossible to maintain 20th century BMI without a punishing workout routine.

One thing that is often forgotten is that our modern diets build stronger bones and bigger muscles. So, the only way to find out if your weight is aporopriate is to also measure skeletal thickness and muscle mass. It's simple to do, but not often done.

And don’t forget the extra layers of fat from the modern diet as already discussed up thread.

 

[SolderIron]

Or 'Sheep'...

Truth is you are sheep (that is being polite) unless you are very rich or a dictator.

 

[quaddriver]

This number is changing daily and not for the better, so I don't know exactly what to make of it. Sure, if expressed this way your number makes it look like Covid is a minuscule problem, but is it?

Maybe that was the point of your post? To make people question the usefulness of statistics?

I think that is pretty important to actually try to understand what a statistic is trying to tell you and whether or not the info is useful. As for your stat, I personally don't find the information it's telling me to be particularly useful in gauging the threat of the virus.

The information you presented is only a snapshot based on the current infections which are only 3.72% of the US population having been infected (based on 12.2 million confirmed cases). If we took 12.2 million confirmed cases and 256k deaths we would see that 2.1% or .0209 deaths occurred in confirmed cases.

We could conservatively extrapolate this data to your stat and see the differences. Let's say 70% of Americans get infected (a pretty widely accepted rate for herd immunity), that would be 229.7 million people infected. Let's say that we get better at treating Covid and see an improvement to 1.5% of cases resulting in death. That would be 3,446,000 deaths.

So if we plug that number (3,446,000 deaths) into your stat we get .0105 (1.05% or 1 in 100)of the US population will die of Covid. That is considerably more than .000744 (.074%) mortality

Is that completely accurate or useful info to assess the risk of Covid? I dont know, but I think it's more useful than a snapshot of a rapidly moving target. I'm sure there are way more variables to consider such as the effect of vaccines, changes in attitudes, changes in the virus, etc.

It's complicated and I'm not a scientist or expert at statistics but I'm trying at least to make sense of the info presented to me.

eh not really - and an update about the model. And no, this is not political so read before you click. recall the date when we hit 200K deaths in the US? at the time campaigning was going on and it was said that by labor day, we would hit 400K. miss. then it moved to hallowed ween. miss. then it moved to turkey day. (will miss) then xmas (will miss) and the latest as of 72 hours ago - inauguration day (jan 21nd) why have the prognosticators been so wrong? its our fault. the model is not ready for prime time - those in mathematics or 'puters know how it works, you develop the algorithm than refine it over and over until you get at least 3 levels of confidence. But alas, human nature is 'take any news that helps your case and use it, regardless of authenticity'. who am I to argue?

the problem is as it were, the model is wrong so far as NOT ENOUGH people are dying. not enough by now, a factor of 8. No, I dont want more people to die. so clearly something else is at work.

first off, our positive rate is way too damn low. when this hit in march/april we were seeing 15% of t hose tested, come back positive and during the lockdown it fell rather quickly to 10%, and then by mem day, 3% or way less. if you recall back then you had to have a dr referral to get a test as they were in short supply. so it was apparent when the + rate was around 10%, that 90% of the people who glumly went to the doc were sick *with something else*

over the summer tests were prolific and you could get them walk in at walmart, cvs, rite aid, drive thru stations etc, but a lot of tests went unused. now that things are ticking up, some people are being asked to test nearly every week (or in Musks case, 4 times in 1 day) as contact tracing keeps coming up. I know that as our schools are finding cases - of which not 1 to date has traced to the school - entire graduating classes are sent to the tester about every other week. that is not efficient. our local + rate hovers between 3.5% and 10% depending on township. and once again, you need a note from the doctor to get a test, AFTER you have made an appt. we actually have some people satisfying quarantine, without ever getting a test!

we keep pointing to europe...health agencies that are NOT in the US are now more and more reporting the actual infection rate of true asymptomatic cases is MASSIVE. true asymptomatics cannot give it away. that is important to remember. I am hearing as gospel outside the USA, 20x infection rate plus england keeps hitting us on the head saying a + test is *not* a clinical infection in any sense and we are wasting resources on not sick people, putting sick people at risk. 1 out of 100 will be 3.5M deaths in the USA. we suspect over 2/3 of the population has been exposed multiple times in the last 11 months (this thing was resident in the US since xmas 2019) and are hovering how many deaths today? and now, being the future, we have treatments and drugs and now vaccines coming. the death rate obviously is not going to climb (rate, not aggregate number - know the difference)

I have a recording of another of those disaster conferences I attend where a Dr and CEO of one of the companies that makes tests (from england btw - not the US) is telling us to knock it off. they think we are behaving foolishly. IF you have a narrative in mind, you dont want to hear it. IF you do, PM me.

 

[GChief]

^^^ the Petri dish of a industry I work in daily does not fit the narrative at all

And I will add Ship Repair/Shipyard workers are far from the healthiest people, just a reflection of society same as any other group.

 

[NH-MAN]

^^^ the Petri dish of a industry I work in daily does not fit the narrative at all

And I will add Ship Repair/Shipyard workers are far from the healthiest people, just a reflection of society same as any other group.

Nor do the hundreds of thousands of cashiers across the country, or the north country here that all from infected Massachusetts come to visit every weekend yet we have extremely low cases unless you are on the border.

 

[Pio1980]

Truth is you are sheep (that is being polite) unless you are very rich or a dictator.

Golden rule, gold rules.

 

[NH-MAN]

Golden rule, gold rules.

Other than taxes I do not, nor have I ever, felt like a sheep, I am my Master.

 

[sKiZo]

The talking heads are saying people are just getting frustrated with how long it's taking to get this thing under control, but really ... the results so far are WAY ahead of the curve compared to similar situations in the past.

I'm sick of wearing a mask, social distancing, etc too, but ... anyone who thinks the need for these "draconian" precautions is past, think again. Yes, there are promising treatments on the way, but they're not here yet, and the virus is still running rampant, and in fact picking up speed. I for one don't have a problem with the status quo until we're certified over the hump on the pandemic.

PS - having vaccines will do no good if we don't get vaccinations. Duhhhhh? You've all heard of "herd immunity" by now ... Darwin assures us that a "culling of the herd" will be next up for those who ignore the warnings, unless keeping your head in the sand can actually block the virus ...

Until then ... wear your masks!

 

[icenine]

Spanish Flu should provide guidance on what may happen with Covid. SF had an initial spike and a second spike just like C19. SF disappeared after year two presumably having mutated into something less virulent. Back then, doctors did everything wrong to treat SF patients and yet SF receded and disappeared. If history is any guide, we are in for another year of C19 and hopefully it will mutate away. The creation of vaccines will have a dramatic effect and has the potential to end the pandemic regardless of whether C19 mutates. Overall, I would say humanity has done quite well. We will move past this and recover.

You leave out the fact that 695,000 deaths occurred in the USA from the Spanish flu during this "mutating away."

 

[NH-MAN]

Other than taxes I do not, nor have I ever, felt like a sheep, I am my Master.

Edit, maybe when I was in the military, but even then I was in charge of how far I could progress.

 

[GChief]

Darwin assures us that a "culling of the herd" will be next up for those who ignore the warnings, unless keeping your head in the sand can actually block the virus ... ;-}

Don’t leave out the survival of the fittest part of that!

 

[icenine]

Now, break it down further into the percentage of people over 65 who have caught Covid-19 and didn't survive. Being a member of that group (over 65, not the "didn't survive" part) it's a number I'm far more interested in.

A statistic isn't important...until its you. Anyone over 65 should really be cautious right now since the virus is now on an exponential increase.

 

[likebike23]

eh not really - and an update about the model. And no, this is not political so read before you click. recall the date when we hit 200K deaths in the US? at the time campaigning was going on and it was said that by labor day, we would hit 400K. miss. then it moved to hallowed ween. miss. then it moved to turkey day. (will miss) then xmas (will miss) and the latest as of 72 hours ago - inauguration day (jan 21nd) why have the prognosticators been so wrong? its our fault. the model is not ready for prime time - those in mathematics or 'puters know how it works, you develop the algorithm than refine it over and over until you get at least 3 levels of confidence. But alas, human nature is 'take any news that helps your case and use it, regardless of authenticity'. who am I to argue?

the problem is as it were, the model is wrong so far as NOT ENOUGH people are dying. not enough by now, a factor of 8. No, I dont want more people to die. so clearly something else is at work.

first off, our positive rate is way too damn low. when this hit in march/april we were seeing 15% of t hose tested, come back positive and during the lockdown it fell rather quickly to 10%, and then by mem day, 3% or way less. if you recall back then you had to have a dr referral to get a test as they were in short supply. so it was apparent when the + rate was around 10%, that 90% of the people who glumly went to the doc were sick *with something else*

over the summer tests were prolific and you could get them walk in at walmart, cvs, rite aid, drive thru stations etc, but a lot of tests went unused. now that things are ticking up, some people are being asked to test nearly every week (or in Musks case, 4 times in 1 day) as contact tracing keeps coming up. I know that as our schools are finding cases - of which not 1 to date has traced to the school - entire graduating classes are sent to the tester about every other week. that is not efficient. our local + rate hovers between 3.5% and 10% depending on township. and once again, you need a note from the doctor to get a test, AFTER you have made an appt. we actually have some people satisfying quarantine, without ever getting a test!

we keep pointing to europe...health agencies that are NOT in the US are now more and more reporting the actual infection rate of true asymptomatic cases is MASSIVE. true asymptomatics cannot give it away. that is important to remember. I am hearing as gospel outside the USA, 20x infection rate plus england keeps hitting us on the head saying a + test is *not* a clinical infection in any sense and we are wasting resources on not sick people, putting sick people at risk. 1 out of 100 will be 3.5M deaths in the USA. we suspect over 2/3 of the population has been exposed multiple times in the last 11 months (this thing was resident in the US since xmas 2019) and are hovering how many deaths today? and now, being the future, we have treatments and drugs and now vaccines coming. the death rate obviously is not going to climb (rate, not aggregate number - know the difference)

I have a recording of another of those disaster conferences I attend where a Dr and CEO of one of the companies that makes tests (from england btw - not the US) is telling us to knock it off. they think we are behaving foolishly. IF you have a narrative in mind, you dont want to hear it. IF you do, PM me.

You obviously understand statistics better than I, I freely admitted that I'm no expert and that my numbers I just threw out there were not necessrarily accurate.

My point was that stats need to be telling us useful information and that it is extremely complex. I dont care that you critiqued my stats, I was just throwing that out there to show that I could use stats to show something different.

Just for curiosity's sake, what do you think of Tubed's stat? Was the number expressed in a way that tells us anything? Was the Covid deaths to total US population telling us anything about the lethality of the virus?