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...with the advent of 192/24 and 2x DSD recorders, the first nail in the eventual coffin of vinyl has been hammered in. There will be better digital formats than those ones available in the future, and when they get here even the very best of vinyl replay will have no further performance advantage over the new digital formats.
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I think this is very likely true. It may take a while, but the technology to make digital sound ever bit as good as analog is ALREADY HERE, at the "cutting edge". There are sound files out there which effectively put the same sonic quality as an analog master tape at our disposal in a digital download form. It's really only a question of IF and WHEN the owners of those master tapes will allow them to be made available in such a format.
If they do, and the world generally (including the masses of kids downloading MP3s) moves in that direction, then the only reasons to continue playing vinyl will be non-sound-related. The nostalgia factor (if you are old enough) or some transient (hipster-like) fad factor or other appeal might keep vinyl alive, but we'll no longer be able to justify vinyl-spinning because it sounds better. It will be a lot of extra hassle/work (or ritual/meditation if you prefer) for no sonic gain. The technology ALREADY EXISTS to make this true, even if it isn't quite in (most of) our living rooms today.
For anyone wanting to know more about this topic, I'd recommend some of the panel discussions from RMAF 12 that are up on YouTube.
There will be an absolute limit on the number of new records pressed based on the limited number or presses that are in working order (no new machines are being built). Some of the current machines will become unrepairable, even further limiting the revival.
As far as collecting old records is concerned, that will remain an interest because so many recordings, particularly rock, jazz and pop, sound much better in the original release than in subsequent digital releases (it doesn't matter what is the reason for this -- whether this is the result of poor digital mastering, deterioration of the master tapes or inherent superiority of the medium). I certainly would prefer that digital reissues improve on the original, but, that does not happen often enough to make lp collecting more than a collector hobby.
The issue of pressing capacity is a real one. As the currently-running machines eventually wear out beyond what can be cost-effectively done to keep them running, where will new records come from? Will the still limited production volumes make it worth anyone's while to actually make the equipment (used to made vinyl records) available again?
The issue of better sound being available on vinyl than in digital format is also a real issue TODAY... but if the record companies, looking as always for yet another way to re-sell us their existing catalogs, start releasing them as hi-rez DSD downloads, this will no longer be true. If you knew that you could have the same --or even better-- quality sound at just the click of a button, as you now get with all the steps of record-spinning, how often would you choose to spin a record? Most people wouldn't do it very often, if at all. So while this is a good reason for vinyl to retain some popularity for a while yet, this reason COULD disappear. In fact, if companies start realizing how much more money they could make re-releasing their catalogs in hi-rez digital formats, and how quickly sales could multiply that way (with no tangible products to manufacture, ship, etc...), they'll start churning out those files hell-bent-for-leather. Then watch how quickly the vinyl resurgence will stabilize down into a very small niche; a sub-surgence, if you will.
Maybe the reason that vinyl sales declined in 2012 is because people are finding out that the original pressings are more times than not better than the current new reissues that are being released. Just a thought.
There is a lot of truth in this, of course. People have caught on that much of the time, finding an original pressing may be better than a new one. Then again, sometimes it's just easier to buy a new one, than go on the hunt for a harder-to-find GOOD old one. So there will be room for both.
But again, what could sound the death knell for both hunts is truly master-tape-equivalent hi-rez downloads. No one can say whether or not that will materialize on any real scale, but if it does, then all bets on vinyl's continued growth in sales --new or old-- would have to be off.
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If I had a large collection of LP's, and sometimes wished I had the convience of Digital, I would borrow the highest quality TT I could, and transfer them all to a 24 bit/96 khz Loss Less Digital Format. This way when I'm in the mode I could enjoy the LP, and when I'm lazy, just press a button on my I-Pad and get an Exact copy of the LP, that may sound better than the Digital vesion if it was mastered better. I find many LP's are generally mastered better than CD's, Especially older LP's. Once these files are saved in a computers HD, they can be transerred in many formats for playback in the car, a boat or RV, or taken to the cottage.
This is very true: the mastering is critical. That said, I think whenever companies are trying to sell truly cutting-edge quality, like truly analog-equivalent digital files, they'll be inclined to seek out more skilled mastering engineers. Eventually, if the market for hi-rez files explodes, they'll have a lot of inferior masters out there, too, because there aren't enough really skilled guys (or girls) out there to keep up with the potential demand, but at least initially and for the more valuable titles, they should be well-mastered.
Incidentally, the guys doing the best digital work today won't get near 24/96 any more. It's too inferior. 24/192 and even higher are where it's at now. I'm going to sell my 24/96 set-up soon (after I buy an Oppo BDP-105 that can handle higher rates), before it's price plummets in the face of higher/better gear. The software may never be available in any significant amounts at the higher rates, but I'm inclined to think that eventually it will be. When it is, I'll be ready.
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I don't have very many DSD files and I have never tried to play them through iTunes, though. The number of people that need DSD capabilities is so small right now that it is makes the vinyl market look huge. If ripping SACDs or a DSD music services became extremely popular, I think the software would follow.
This is true FOR NOW, and I think whether it remains so is the single biggest key to whether vinyl continues to enjoy a "resurgence" or finally dies the relative death so long predicted for it. When there is truly no sonic advantage whatsoever to vinyl, and all one's music can be had in breathtakingly high sonic quality at the click of a mouse, a lot of people now still playing records, will stop. Even if some of us die-hards don't, enough will to take the wind out of the vinyl ship's sails and leave it in the doldrums, a once again almost-forgotten niche.