Prices.... Going Up!!!

[Mystic]

Prices holding but sales going .... down:

United States Pending Home Sales (Month Over Month) Declining

Pending home sales in the U.S. declined 4% month-over-month in November of 2022, the sixth consecutive monthly decline and much worse than market forecasts of a 0.8% decline, as interest rates climbed, drastically cutting into the number of contract signings to buy a home. That pushed the Pending Home Sales Index to 73.9 - the lowest level since 2001, excluding the drop in the early months of the pandemic. Year-over-year, pending home sales went down 37.8%, with sales falling at double-digit paces in all four regions, although the West (-45.7%) recorded the biggest drop.

According to Larry Yew, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, mortgage rates will begin declining late December and throughout early 2023 and thus home-buying activity should rebound in the coming months.

 

[Mystic]

Re: PRICES, a bit of "good" news (for a change) over here in Eurovania: Natural Gas futures trading 77% lower than August 2022 high and @ about the same level as end of September 2021...

NATURAL GAS: EUROS/MEGA WATT HOUR (JANUARY 2021 > 29 DECEMBER 2022)

 

[Mystic]

Re: PRICES, a bit of "good" news (for a change) over here in Eurovania: Natural Gas futures trading 77% lower than August 2022 high and @ about the same level as end of September 2021...

NATURAL GAS: EUROS/MEGA WATT HOUR (JANUARY 2021 > 29 DECEMBER 2022)
View attachment 2752472

UPDATE: 2 JANUARY 2023

Better news regarding the spot cost of Natural Gas in Europe:

The cost has fallen to €73/MWh as of the market opening on 2 January 2023.

Contributing factors include:

1. Record LNG imports from India and USA.
2. Fuller-than-predicted NG stockpiles.
3. Milder-than-predicted weather.
4. Increased power generation from wind.
5. Lower-than-expected exports to neighboring EU states have allowed Germany to replenish its storage facilities for eight consecutive days.
6. NG supplies from Russia, sent through Ukrainia, have been (much) more stable than expected.
7. Weather forecasts are predicting normal to above-average temperatures through the end of January 2023.

 

[Mystic]

OTOH, the market cost of crude oil (WTI and Brent) and gasoline is rising...

WTI crude futures opened above $80 per barrel on Tuesday (2 January 2023) and gained nearly 8% in a year marked by extreme volatility as various supply risks vied with persistent demand concerns. Brent crude opened at over $86 per barrel on Tuesday (2 January), nearly 14% for the year. Gasoline opened the day at $2.47 per gallon, up 4.27% for the year.

Notes:

1. China’s adherence to its strict zero-Covid policy also weighed on the demand outlook in the world’s top crude importer through most of the year.
2. Investors are also wary of further actions from Russia after it banned oil exports to foreign buyers that adopt the G7 price cap.

 

[Mystic]

Revisited: LITHIUM, high-flying commodity through most of 2022, value sinking sharply and steadily since November 2022.

Between 19 January 2022 and 14 November 2022, the value (i.e., CNY/T) of one ton of LITHIUM advanced from CNY/T 330143 to CNY/T 597500.

Since the peak on 14 November 2022, the CNY/T of LITHIUM has steadily and rather steeply declined, from CNY/T 597500 to CNY/T 480500 as of 16 January 2023, i.e., a decrease of 20% over an 8-week period.

Reasons cited:

- Strong supply but weakening global demand
- The demand for electric vehicles in China's automotive market declined sharply after the world’s top consumer halted purchase subsidies in the EV sector

LITHIUM: CNY/T -- 19 JANUARY 2022 > 16 JANUARY 2023

 

[Mystic]

Revisited: Cost of NATURAL GAS in the European Union markets still declining.

The price of Dutch TTF Natural Gas, the benchmark for the northwest Europe, declined 15% this morning, to €54.85 per megawatt-hour (MWh), and has now declined 84% from the cost spike of €347 in August 2022. In fact, today's price is about where it was in August 2021.

As this area (i.e., northwest Europe) is again entering a "cold" phase (@ my house it is, at 12:54pm Paris Time, +1C, or 34F, w/ overnight lows in the mid 20s F predicted for the next 7-10 days), this steep decline in the cost of NG is particularly timely and much welcomed.

Price of NATURAL GAS (ICE Dutch TTF) - €/MWh: January 2021 > 17 January 2023

Source: Trading Economics

It's said that most of the decline since around mid September 2022 was the result of China-based LNG importers' diversion February and March LNG shipments from China to Europe owing to surplus stockpiles of LNG in China amid a steep decline in LNG demand among Chinese consumers.

Hey, I'll take it.

 

[YY1]

I can explain the sharp decline in lithium-

I purchased shares in a mining operation in November.

That's all it took.

 

[rickb119]

I can explain the sharp decline in lithium-

I purchased shares in a mining operation in November.

That's all it took.

 

[Mystic]

I can explain the sharp decline in lithium-

I purchased shares in a mining operation in November.

That's all it took.

I have forwarded your explanation to the folks @ Trading Economics.

 

[init4fun]

I wasn't lookin to wine & dine the cow, or pay reparations to it's kin, just to eat a bit of it.......

 

[YY1]

Yikes.

A new discount grocery just opened in the next city over.
Not sure where the get their stock, but they had frozen rib eyes for $6, and they had 6 freezer cases full of them.

 

[jcamero]

I'm retiring at the end of April. A kid I work with said he's going to find out where I live and egg my house. I told him he couldn't afford it. Ha,HA.

 

[Mystic]

USA @ 27 January 2023: the Price of many Goods is declining, the Price of many Services is rising.

An interesting phenomenon re: inflationary tendancies in the USA's economy is currently afoot: Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, is simultaneosly being impacted by (1) moderate to steep price decreases for fuel and durable goods and (1) sharp price increases for services.

Thus, while inflation re: cost of goods is quieting considerably, inflation re: cost of services is sharply rising.

According to the US Labor Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), data collected in its latest Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) survey, released on Friday 27 January 2023, show that approximately 62% of total consumer expenditure goes to services.

Services, incidentally, typcially include such elements as housing, utilities, insurance, healthcare, travel bookings, streaming, subscriptions of all kinds, entertainment, repairs, cleaning services, personal grooming and clothing, and similar phenonmena.

"REAL" EXPENDITURE ON SERVICES: JANUARY 2016 > 31 DECEMBER 2022
(Trillion$)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (US Department of Labor), 27 January 2023

Perhaps more interesting is the simultaneous steep decline in demand, and therefore concomitant reduction in the cost, of many durable goods and non-durable goods.

Adjusted for inflation, "real" spending on durable goods declined 1.6% between 1 November and 31 December 2022.

"REAL" SPENDING ON DURABLE GOODS: JANUARY 2016 > 31 DECEMBER 2022
(Trillion$)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (US Department of Labor), 27 January 2023

Consumer expenditure on Non-durable goods also declined. Non-durable goods includes, typically, food, fuel, and household supplies. Smaller than the decline for spending on durable goods, spending on non-durable goods still declined 0.4% between 1 November and 31 December 2022.

"REAL" SPENDING ON NON-DURABLE GOODS: JANUARY 2016 > 31 DECEMBER 2022
(Trillion$)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (US Department of Labor), 27 January 2023

 

[Johnno_Oz]

One thing that has been dropping is computer graphics cards (GPUs) as crypto miners payoffs have decreased.

New prices have reduced as supply has caught up AND there's a flood of used high end GPUs on the market. Picked one up last week at about 1/3 of the inflated sticker price during the shortage.

 

[YY1]

In one of our houses, the tenant broke a 3x4 kitchen window.

The first repair estimate was $1600.

WTF?

Not even double pane.

 

[grinx76]

In one of our houses, the tenant broke a 3x4 kitchen window.

The first repair estimate was $1600.

WTF?

Not even double pane.

Renewal by Anderson

Window. Original casement, replaced with dual-pane slider - $2500
Sliding glass door - $4500

 

[YY1]

In 2018, a 18"x24" was $385.

 

[nolasally]

I think poorly of Anderson by renewal. Total scam. Offer special deals with ridiculous overpriced window. Claim their composite frames are the best but no one else is doing it. High pressure sales are a deal breaker for me.

best premium window imo is Marvin
Best budget window in plygem

 

[Mystic]

GOING UP: The Cost of a US Dollar in France

And the rest of the Euro Zone.

I earn income in The States and, since 2015, in The EU (specifically, Luxembourg). At that time, a single USD cost Euro 1.05 - not awful but not parity. This relationship steadily increased, to the point that by 2018 a single USD cost Euro 1.18 -- an approximately 13 cents increase in three years.

Fast forward to Things Corona & Ukrainia: on or about 30 May 2021 the value of my Euros began to plunge, from around 1.21 to, by 19 September 2022, 0.98. Along the way there was 1-to-1 parity.

For a brief spell.

Since ~ 3 October 2022, the value of The Euro has climbed quickly, and as of this morning it's @ a single USD costing Euro 1.099 -- we'll call it 1.10 -- and this happened over a period of 16 weeks.

The good news is that my Euro Income goes far in USA. The bad news is my US income, including retirement pension I, are sapped when transferred for purpose and put here, in France, where I reside FT.

 

[SolderIron]

Gas is about $4.20 here. It can be better but think that is OK.
Price of eggs is still too high.
The COLA is yummy this year.