This is a well-studied issue, with mountains of technical material on the subject trivially available on the interwebs. For example, see:
Physics Based Electrolytic Capacitor Degradation Models for Prognostic Studies under Thermal Overstress
Chetan S. Kulkarni, Jose R. Celaya, Kai Goebel, and Gautam Biswas
European Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, 2012
https://ti.arc.nasa.gov/publications/5005/download/
2. ELECTROLYTIC CAPACITORS
Electrolytic capacitor performance is strongly affected by its operating conditions, such as voltage, current, frequency, and ambient temperatures. [...]
A primary reason for wear out in aluminum electrolytic capacitors is due to vaporization of electrolyte (Goodman et al., 2007) and degradation of electrolyte due to ion exchange during charging/discharging (Gomez-Aleixandre et al., 1986; Ikonopisov, 1977) , which, in turn leads to a drift in the two main electrical parameters of the capacitor: (1) the equivalent series resistance (ESR), and (2) the capacitance (C). The ESR of a capacitor is the sum of the resistance due to aluminum oxide, electrolyte, spacer, and electrodes (foil, tabbing, leads, and ohmic contacts) (Hayatee, 1975; Gasperi, 1996). The health of a capacitor is often indicated by the values of these two parameters. There are certain industry standard thresholds for these parameter values, upon crossing these threshold barrier the component is considered unhealthy to be used in a system, i.e., the component has reached its end of life, and should be immediately replaced before further operations (Lahyani et al., 1998; Eliasson, 2007; Imam et al., 2005).
[A]n aluminum electrolytic capacitor, consists of a cathode aluminum foil, electrolytic paper, electrolyte, and an aluminum oxide layer on the anode foil surface, which acts as the dielectric. When in contact with the electrolyte, the oxide layer possesses an excellent forward direction insulation property (Gasperi, 1996). Together with magnified effective surface area attained by etching the foil, a high capacitance value is obtained in a small volume (Fife, 2006). Since the oxide layer has rectifying properties, a capacitor has polarity. If both the anode and cathode foils have an oxide layer, the capacitors would be bipolar. In this work, we analyze “non-solid” aluminum electrolytic capacitors in which the electrolytic paper is impregnated with liquid electrolyte. [...]
2.1. Overview of Degradation Mechanisms
The flow of current during the charge/ discharge cycle of the capacitor causes the internal temperature to rise. The heat generated is transmitted from the core to the surface of the capacitor body, but not all the heat generated can escape. The excess heat results in a rise in the internal temperature of the capacitors which causes the electrolyte to evaporate, and gradually deplete (Kulkarni, Biswas, et al., 2011b; Kulkarni, Celaya, et al., 2011). Similarly in situations where the capacitor is operating under high temperature conditions, the capacitor body is at a higher temperature than its core, the heat travels in the opposite directions from the body surface to the core of the capacitor again increasing the internal temperature causing the electrolyte to evaporate. This is explained using a first principles thermal model of heat conduction (Kulkarni, Biswas, et al., 2011b; Kulkarni, Celaya, et al., 2011).
Degradation in the oxide layer can be attributed to crystal defects that occur because of the periodic heating and cooling during the capacitor’s duty cycle, as well as stress, cracks, and installation-related damage. High electrical stress is known to accentuate the degradation of the oxide layer due to localized dielectric breakdowns on the oxide layer (Ikonopisov, 1977; Wit & Crevecoeur, 1974). These breakdowns, which accelerate the degradation, have been attributed to the duty cycle, i.e., the charge/discharge cycle during operation (Ikonopisov, 1977). Further another simultaneous phenomenon is the increase in the internal pressure (Gomez-Aleixandre et al., 1986) due to an increased rate of chemical reactions, which can again be attributed to the internal temperature increase in the capacitor. This pressure increase can ultimately lead to the capacitor popping.
All the failure/degradation phenomenon mentioned may act simultaneously based on the operating conditions of the capacitors. We first study the phenomenon qualitatively, and then discuss the steps to derive the first principles analytic degradation models for the different thermal stress condition. Electrolyte evaporations is caused either due to increase in internal core temperature or external surrounding temperature. Both phenomenon lead to the same degradation mode,caused either by the high electrical stress or thermal stress, respectively.