While it is clearly true that skating force is generated by the walls of the groove so a flat surface can only suggest the correct anti skating force, I suspect that it is more complicated than a simple 45 degree vector diagram encompasses. Obviously there are two sides to the groove, so a fuller vector diagram would show both sides, with the downward force split between them.
But the groove is modulated, and in a stereo record, each side's modulation is different, so not only is the stylus accelerating madly back and forth, but it is also probably at times sliding up and down on one side of the groove as a large modulation on one channel lifts and drops the stylus when there isn't such a modulation on the other. So, since acceleration is force times mass) the force exterted on each wall of the groove is dramatically changing as the stylus is accelerated in one direction and then another, and in both the horizontal and vertical axises (axes?).
I suspect that groove modulation affects the required antiskating force very significantly, so the best we can do is a very rough estimate, one which will be too high much of the time, but too little when it is needed the most.
Which is why I think it is okay to throw up your hands and do what the manufacturer suggests (of course, not all makers even offer suggesting settings - wimps!).