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Prices.... Going Up!!!

Well, the freak out will hit a higher gear today with the announcement of inflation numbers. We all knew it was going to rise, and we know why, and when you track an average rate of change over several years you can see it's not THAT bad. The freak out will continue anyway.

View attachment 2224239

Here's a graph, courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank, St Louis:

Purchasing Power of the US Dollar: December 2007 - April 2021 (Index value, not seasonally adjusted)
upload_2021-5-13_13-17-36.png
(Source: US Federal Reserve Bank, St Louis)

Read: between December 2007 and April 2021, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined at an annulized rate of 8.4 percent.

A helluva lotta US-based economists in government and academia are exclaiming their "surprise" at these inflation data. Hm. A question for these experts: what is surprising after 15-18 consecutive months of extraordinary -- bordering on irrational? -- price inflation for such goods as used vehicles, lumber, and housing (nb: the single largest component in the Consumer Price Index formulation) in combination with a surge in factory input costs that are being passed on to consumers? Price inflation impacted, for the first time since 2007, every sector represented in the CPI, i.e., Services (+6% annualized), Durable Goods (+42% annualized), and Non-durable Goods (+7.5% annualized).

Just a bit more about that price inflation for used vehicles: the cost ofused vehicles is another prominent element in the overall CPI and the Durable Goods category in particular. Between March and April 2021 alone, the average cost of used vehicles rose by 10.4%... a scary increase that was preceded by months of scary increases in this sector of the US economy. A graphic representation:

CPI, Used Vehicles, December 2000 - April 2021 (Index value, seasonally adjusted)
upload_2021-5-13_13-38-33.png
(Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

PS: These data don't take into account the recent surge in fuel costs, which will be reflected in the May 2021 reports from BLS and the US Federal Reserve Bank @ St Louis.
 
Keystone XL is on the shelf so supply will not expand. Prices stay high. In economics that is called in-elasticity. Prices skyrocket but demand responds slowly or not at all. People have to drive and live.
actually keystone was not so much for us, but for canada to sell the oil from the tar sands down south for export. we would have gotten at the private level transpo fees and at the govt level taxes. by shutting that down we left a couple trillion dollars over the next 10 years on the table. so the canadians are doing the next best thing...buying KCS (kansas city southern - small class 1 RR who has terminal ends strikingly coincidental to the termini of the keystone.....) to create a rail pipeline. their offer is about twice the market value, thats how important this is to them.

ETA: inelasticity - that is what happened to diesel. diesel is what oozes out as a waste product when you make gas. but trains, busses, trucks, near-shore craft all need diesel - price be damned and well...here we are.
 
Uhh... yes, well... maybe... it all depends.
I need to point out that I inherited it all. It's why I drove to Seattle from Kentucky last summer. I brought the rest of the ammo back with me after the five weeks I spent in Seattle, coming back just last week. We rented and stuffed a Pacifica with stuff.
 
Here's a graph, courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank, St Louis:

Purchasing Power of the US Dollar: December 2007 - April 2021 (Index value, not seasonally adjusted)
View attachment 2225145
(Source: US Federal Reserve Bank, St Louis)

Read: between December 2007 and April 2021, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined at an annulized rate of 8.4 percent.

A helluva lotta US-based economists in government and academia are exclaiming their "surprise" at these inflation data. Hm. A question for these experts: what is surprising after 15-18 consecutive months of extraordinary -- bordering on irrational? -- price inflation for such goods as used vehicles, lumber, and housing (nb: the single largest component in the Consumer Price Index formulation) in combination with a surge in factory input costs that are being passed on to consumers? Price inflation impacted, for the first time since 2007, every sector represented in the CPI, i.e., Services (+6% annualized), Durable Goods (+42% annualized), and Non-durable Goods (+7.5% annualized).

Just a bit more about that price inflation for used vehicles: the cost ofused vehicles is another prominent element in the overall CPI and the Durable Goods category in particular. Between March and April 2021 alone, the average cost of used vehicles rose by 10.4%... a scary increase that was preceded by months of scary increases in this sector of the US economy. A graphic representation:

CPI, Used Vehicles, December 2000 - April 2021 (Index value, seasonally adjusted)
View attachment 2225153
(Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

PS: These data don't take into account the recent surge in fuel costs, which will be reflected in the May 2021 reports from BLS and the US Federal Reserve Bank @ St Louis.
So many dots that need connecting, and more all the time... when connected, range back, they create an undeniable picture that expands the shut down to an apocalypse the likes of which has never been known, predicted but not seen.... and the irony is that it is right out in plain view. As an aside, almost, when the 'first' world suffers the 'third' world starves. Even in the States, when prices double on food and fuel... those living pay check to pay check, or on a tight margin will suffer terribly, right now they are being paid off but that will expire... run that to it's logical conclusion...
 
Lumber is so high because now all the trees are being used to make dollar bills.
I thought the joke was funny, but to wax serious for a second... I have 25 acres of trees that I'm thinking of having logged. I have a lot of walnut, hickory, oak, etc. I found out that wood is not worth any more than it used to be. They have all the wood they need. It is the mills working as 1/4 capacity because of the virus response nonsense. They have logs backing up.

BTW, my post is a good example of biased reporting. To remove the bias, All I have to do is remove the word, "nonsense". :D
 
The petroleum industry is the only example I can think of that can justify raising prices due to lack of supply, and/or due to lack of demand.
 
Yeah, um WTF?

Seconded... awaiting an explanation of the poster's comparison of the "market action" graph w/ the "purchasing poswer" graphs I posted a day or so ago. I think I know where the "market action" poster might go... but I wanna give him (her?) an opportunity to explain.
 
Lumber is so high because now all the trees are being used to make dollar bills.

Some truth to that statement.

Considering the Fed's having expanded the money supply by approximately 40 percent in just the last year, the only actual surprise is how resilient the value of the dollar has remained... at least for now... although (IMO) we're now witnessing how the intentional (and somewhat reckless) increase in the money supply has, intuitively, diluted its purchasing power.

Back to the recent spate of inflation and rising prices on so many goods and services @ the US economy:

At this time, there is still lots of cash that's held in banks and vaults. As the cost of holding it (i.e., cash) becomes more costly via loss of value through inflation, cash holders will increasingly look to invest in inflation-hedging assets. When we reach the point @ which no one wants to hold cash and most of it is (re)deployed to the purchase of other assets, prices on goods and services will be driven up even higher ... a vicious circle that’s really difficult to get under control ... you know, like trying to put the genie back in the bottle but...
 
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