That leaves out population stagnation, boomers moving into comunale housing, general downsizing as energy costs soar and a couple other reasons why the housing stock will be more than adequate in decades to come.
Prices.... Going Up!!!
- Thread starter musichal
- Start date
But the BDI which measures cost of moving raw materials has collapsed this year after reaching for the moon last year.
spicer
Lunatic Member
There's an elephant in the room impossible to mention, many don't even see it much less acknowledge. Blackrock is one of it's legs.
Quadman2
Lunatic Member
There was a TV special on a related...same company, "Blackstone", doing just this. Going in with pension funds, buying up whole neighbourhoods, "gentrifying", raising rents, and selling down the road at much higher prices. And there was one gal, traveling the world, going to the bigger centres, pointing out to the different governments what was happening. Seems that she was threatened more than once to stop doing this...but she has not!
Q
Mystic
We're all born mad
By pure coincidence, I happened to read this morning, somewhere @ the World Wide Thing, that this very same BlackRock recently -- (today? ... yesterday? -- became the first public asset management firm to accumulate assets valued at USD $10 trillion ... way @ the "top" of its sector.
warriorfan
Well-Known Member
Chineese company on the east coast. It's a murky deal with political ties.
USDA reported in 2018 that all of China’s agricultural investments grew more than tenfold since 2009. By the start of 2020, Chinese owners controlled about 192,000 agricultural acres in the U.S., worth $1.9 billion, including land used for farming, ranching and forestry, according to the Agriculture Department.
warriorfan
Well-Known Member
I heard that. That big solar **** is the latest scam around here. Russia will speed up China's debt collection/write off here any day now
Quadman2
Lunatic Member
With that amount of $money$ in hand, Mys...you can only imagine the amount and degree of "under-the-table" deals that at made with both gov't/municipal officials.
Q
Bone Yard
Super Member
I dabble in the housing industry, 22+% of single family homes are now under corporate ownership. These homes are turned into rental properties and they are in every neighborhood, most are in the middle-class and they tend to stay out of the lower-end, there's just too much work to maintain the homes and they can be found in the high-end middle class as well. With this amount of ownership, they can manipulate pricing.
Ever wonder why there are so many bidders now? Two or three are corporate buying, pushing up the sell price. This article doesn't even mention the three big guys that started doing this back in the mid-2000's. They were having a hay-day in 2009, buying everything that came up for sale. In the last two years we started seeing multiple international companies doing the same, they might have been on the coasts but now they are in the residential market in the middle.
https://thebusinessjournal.com/the-...homebuyers-have-some-in-the-industry-worried/
All of our recessions in the last 40 years have started with a slow-down in the new home market, they overbuild like crazy, some of these new constructions have 500-1000 homes and I have dozens going up around me. Something happens, the market drops and all of the sudden you have thousands of new homes sitting. With labor and wood going through the roof, houses are not cheap to build anymore, the next correction could be really bad, with the losses much more.
Ever wonder why there are so many bidders now? Two or three are corporate buying, pushing up the sell price. This article doesn't even mention the three big guys that started doing this back in the mid-2000's. They were having a hay-day in 2009, buying everything that came up for sale. In the last two years we started seeing multiple international companies doing the same, they might have been on the coasts but now they are in the residential market in the middle.
https://thebusinessjournal.com/the-...homebuyers-have-some-in-the-industry-worried/
All of our recessions in the last 40 years have started with a slow-down in the new home market, they overbuild like crazy, some of these new constructions have 500-1000 homes and I have dozens going up around me. Something happens, the market drops and all of the sudden you have thousands of new homes sitting. With labor and wood going through the roof, houses are not cheap to build anymore, the next correction could be really bad, with the losses much more.
Jazz Junkie
Super Member
I don't recall asking you to.
I use butter and lard too.
BTW, I'm pushing 70 and all of my numbers (medical) are well within normal ranges (other that a few extra pounds).
Sounds like Keto Coffee. We use coconut oil as well. Great and healthy stuff if used properly.
Mystic
We're all born mad
Collapsing BDI has, at least dating back to the early 2000s, reflected economic contraction and recessionary trends. Since October 2021, when BDI was (appox) 5600, the index has -- as you pointed out above -- plummeted to 1764 by Week One of 2022 -- a two-month decline of 5.82% in the BDI. This is strong indication of a looming economic contraction.
PS: For anyone who is wondering, BDI = Baltic Dry Index .... formerly called BFI.
spicer
Lunatic Member
Under the table deals is corruption that equates to ownership of the corrupt.
Quadman2
Lunatic Member
spicer
Lunatic Member
When the devil comes calling you sit that one out. The devil always takes.
Bone Yard
Super Member
Somebody is getting greased with all of these high-density neighborhoods plopped down in the middle of nowhere, even if the existing surroundings are larger lots they move in pressboard homes that have 12' of spacing.
Speaking of BDI, my buddy has a more accurate measure, he sells bubble wrap and strapping to shippers, he's predicted every down turn two-three months before the "event."
Speaking of BDI, my buddy has a more accurate measure, he sells bubble wrap and strapping to shippers, he's predicted every down turn two-three months before the "event."
Mystic
We're all born mad
That's a very good measure.
Mystic
We're all born mad
IIRC, Ronnie J. Dio sang, more or less, that very line in a certain Sabbath number.
Mystic
We're all born mad
Y'all in the market for a vehicle, used and/or new, could be lookin' at softer -- maybe much softer -- prices in the coming months. Owing to inflationary pressures @ last putting a damper on the rampant & What The Heck!? spending spree to which Americans subscribed through much of 2020 and a portion of 2021, inventories (supply) of vehicles -- both used and new -- on dealer lots and in private seller listing services are UP UP UP.
New Vehicles
The number of new vehicles in inventory on dealer lots rose to 1.098 million vehicles in December, the fourth month in a row of increases, and the highest inventory level since July, according to data from the industry trade publication Cox Automotive (https://www.coxautoinc.com/). Here's the trend since February 2019:
Source: Cox Automotive
The main reason for the increase in enventory is that new vehicle retail sales plunged 24% year-over-year in December, to just 1.40 million vehicles, and thereby out-plunged production that to this day is struggling with the semiconductor shortage.
Used Vehicles
Per data from Cox Automotive, the number of used vehicles on lots of franchised and independent dealers in December rose to 2.38 million vehicles, the highest since February 2021, and down 17% from the average inventory in 2019 (2.88 million vehicles).
Source: Cox Automotive
So at least for the time being, inventories of both used and new vehicles appear to have bottomed out, though they are inching up and, given the depressed rate of sales, even reduced inventories may hold up well enough.
As the production and inventory situations improve, the ridiculous price spikes of 2021 are going to be an impediment to sales as customers prove to be unwilling or unable to pay them, at which point we might find ourselves back to the times when dealers were actually making deals to move product.
And so it goes.
New Vehicles
The number of new vehicles in inventory on dealer lots rose to 1.098 million vehicles in December, the fourth month in a row of increases, and the highest inventory level since July, according to data from the industry trade publication Cox Automotive (https://www.coxautoinc.com/). Here's the trend since February 2019:
Source: Cox Automotive
The main reason for the increase in enventory is that new vehicle retail sales plunged 24% year-over-year in December, to just 1.40 million vehicles, and thereby out-plunged production that to this day is struggling with the semiconductor shortage.
Used Vehicles
Per data from Cox Automotive, the number of used vehicles on lots of franchised and independent dealers in December rose to 2.38 million vehicles, the highest since February 2021, and down 17% from the average inventory in 2019 (2.88 million vehicles).
Source: Cox Automotive
So at least for the time being, inventories of both used and new vehicles appear to have bottomed out, though they are inching up and, given the depressed rate of sales, even reduced inventories may hold up well enough.
As the production and inventory situations improve, the ridiculous price spikes of 2021 are going to be an impediment to sales as customers prove to be unwilling or unable to pay them, at which point we might find ourselves back to the times when dealers were actually making deals to move product.
And so it goes.
