Quantitative Tightening
The end of QE may arrive soon, Tim. Or @ least that's how The Market, since ~ February 2021, are seeing things.
Since February 2021 the (then) hottest IPOs and SPACs have been crushed, w/ declining market values ranging from -60% to as much as -90%. Examples include Zoom, Redfin, Zillow, Compass, Virgin Galactic, Palantir, Moderna, BioNTech, Peloton, Carvana, Vroom, Chewy, Nikola, Lucid, Rivian, as well as the EV SPAC and the Lordstown Motors IPO. Note that manyof these were handled/managed by ARK Innovation Funds, which has itself seen a value decline of 55% since February 2021.
Folks looking at today's DOW / NASDAQ / S&P 500 / Etc bourse indices might think to themselves that all is (still) well -- cuz it looks "okay" at the surface ... chiefly b/c the biggest stocks kept gaining or at least didn’t lose their footing.
But below the surface matters are becoming unglued.
Since December 2021, even The Giants -- i.e., Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (FaceBook), Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla -- have declined 13.4% -- that's $1.6 TRILLION in paper wealth (cf: Y-Charts).
So you say no big deal, a 13.4% decline, so what? Here's what: This decline is the first-ever such simultaneous decline across all seven of The Giants.
Why the decline? Because The Market finally understands that inflation, now a four-decade problem for the Federal Reserve and a battle the Fed is now (admittedly) losing, has already signaled that it is going to tighten the money supply to gain some semblance of control.
The deliberate constriction of the US's (and world's) money supply to reign in inflation will be effected by the US Federal Reserve thusly:
1. Raising interest rates moderately and
2. Imposing a state of Quantitative Tightening (QT).
But will The Market recognize this as a big deal? Maybe yes, but more likely not. The Market has been spoiled by the years of relentless rising values and will simply re-familarize themselves with two concepts of The Market economics:
1. Stocks can lose value and they can lose all of their value.
2. Cash is trash until it is not.
But there is something else at stake here than The Market: People. The Market value declines ARE a big deal for people whose portfolios full of the stocks, IPO stocks, and SPACs that have and/or continue and/or will crash 60% to 90%.
For these, it may now be time to update the LinkedIn profile and look for a job again.
Upside: Maybe some of the 11 million unfilled job openings can find some takers, lol.
So and we fall into 2022 the dips in The Market are historically the largest in terms of the amount of money decline... ever. There's a lot of money involved in these machinations.
Be careful out there.