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Prices.... Going Up!!!

the Wix oil filter I bought for my car today was 10.50, last year same time would have been high 7's
 
What is the simple definition of attrition? For those of us with resources this is yet something to complain about, for those without the immediacy is much more than that. Just an observation.
 
Pool chlorine up 2x over last year.
I use it as a weed killer, rather than RoundUp, not for a swimming pool. I just went to get some, and, was shocked.
Good use. When there was no TP paper or bleach I was in Wall Mart and there were people looking for and complaining there was no bleach. Right in the center of the isle was a mostly full and ignored pallet of pool chlorine in gallon jugs at a bargain price. I couldn't believe it.
 
Mystic,
Since 2010 the FED has been saying QT is coming all while expanding their balance sheet endlessly. Before 1/2020 when Covid hit they were already back in expansion mode in a big way as overnight lending went haywire, again. They will likely never sell anything and may simply slow the rollovers on maturing debt, most of which is years away.

FED balance sheet below $6T not again. FFR above 4% not again. QE and ZIRP is here to stay until the whole thing caves in on itself. Next year, next decade, mid century? No idea. But history is clear this will happen.

QT has begun in a few states acting responsibly re: their financial markets, but there remain a few laggards -- USA Inc among them. So what follows are examples of action realized, action imminent, action proposed and action stalled and action reversed.

Examples of states that took action in 2021-2022 through 3 February 2022:


UK
As of 3 February BoE raised its policy rate by 25 basis points, to 0.50%, the second hike in a row, after having raised by 15 basis points at its December meeting.

Czechia
As of 3 February policy rate by 75 basis points to 4.5%, the highest since January 2002, and the sixth rate hike in a row since June.

Brazil
As of 2 February they upped their policy rate by 150 basis points, to 10.75%, the eighth hike in a row since March, totaling 875 basis points.

Armenia
As of 1 February they increased the policy rate by 25 basis points, to 8.0%, the eighth hike in a row, including the 50-basis-point hike in December, from liftoff at 4.25%.

Hungary
On 25 January Hungary hiked its policy rate by 50 basis points, to 2.9%, the highest since 2013.

Pakistan
On 24 January 24 Pakistan rested @ a policy rate of 9.75%, after three rate hikes totaling 275 basis points, including 100 basis points in December, and a shock-and-awe 150 basis points in October.

South Korea
On 14 January SK raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the third hike since August, totaling 75 basis points.

Examples of states that have announced they will take action in February 2022:

Mexico
Meeting on 10 February to address inflation that rose to 7.4% in November and December, the highest there since January 2001.

Russian Federation
Meeting on 11 February. At its last meeting on December 17, it hiked its policy rate by another 100 basis points to 8.5%, the seventh rate hike in 2021, totaling 425 basis points. Current inflation @ 8.4%.

New Zealand
Meeting on 23 February to address rising inflation which spiked to 5.9% in Q4.

The LAGGARDS:

USA
Powell announced the FRB might raise its policy rate on March 16 and that it would start QT later this year.

European Union
The ECB announced it is considering imposition of QE and policy rate hikes on the heels of 5.1% average inflation across the Eurozone.

Japan
While its policy rate remains -0.1%, it it began tapering its ultra-massive QE in the fall of 2020 and since May 2021, its balance sheet has flattened out, regardless of what it said in its announcements.

OZ
On 1 February they announced that QE will end on 10 February, but that the current policy rate of 0.1% will be maintained.

Canada
They ended their massive QE in December 2021 and reduced their national balance sheet by 13% -- mainly through shedding short-term T-bills and repos. At its meeting on 26 January, the state bank maintained its policy rate at 0.25%, but paved the way for a rate hike at its next meeting on March 2.

The WTF:

China
PRC has actually crept back into QE by lowering its policy rates and thus reducing the national prime loan rate by 10 basis points (to 3.7%). While the state is struggling with the collapse of the highly leveraged real estate development sector -- a huge contributor to economic growth -- inflation in PRC has eased to 1.5%.

Turkey
The state's banking system ought to write a book called How To Destroy A Curreny In The Least Amount Of Time: in the midst of raging inflation – 49% in January 2022 (!) – in summer 2021 the state bank CUT its policy rate to 14% from 19% after Erdogan fired the head of the central bank. Erdogan is now trying to control inflation by firing the head of the state's main statistical agency.
 
Thorough post. Sadly most those CB have no effect outside their local system. Russia has been trying to strengthen their currency via rates for quite a long time, plus supposedly real inflation there is double digits and climbing.

ECB and UK maintain negative interest rates based on inflation rate and excuse me if I yawn at hikes that get back to rates still well below 1% and inflation. Kabuki IMO.

Real QT would see 4%+ interest rates and serious reductions in holdings. So, just who is it that is going to absorb a few trillion dollars in bonds if real QT happened? The plan to slow, not stop, rollovers of securities will take several years to make meaningful reductions in FED BS (balance sheet). Last I looked they were loaded with stuff maturing five years or more from now. I have not looked lately. Can we really believe that another “crisis” won’t happen between now and then?

Let’s see how markets react to tech melt down? Will we finally see exits get crowded or will more of the trillions sloshing about step in? Huge buying overnight in the techs that have been hurt this year and the US jobs report has all but been announced to be ignored for January saying too many anomalies to have faith. US FED will jawbone and support WS no matter what. “Irrational Exuberance” is never to be uttered again.
 
Russia has been trying to strengthen their currency via rates for quite a long time, plus supposedly real inflation there is double digits and climbing.

Spot on: RF has avowed that Food inflation reached a high of 12.6% in Q4.
 
Thorough post. Sadly most those CB have no effect outside their local system. Russia has been trying to strengthen their currency via rates for quite a long time, plus supposedly real inflation there is double digits and climbing.

ECB and UK maintain negative interest rates based on inflation rate and excuse me if I yawn at hikes that get back to rates still well below 1% and inflation. Kabuki IMO.

Real QT would see 4%+ interest rates and serious reductions in holdings. So, just who is it that is going to absorb a few trillion dollars in bonds if real QT happened? The plan to slow, not stop, rollovers of securities will take several years to make meaningful reductions in FED BS (balance sheet). Last I looked they were loaded with stuff maturing five years or more from now. I have not looked lately. Can we really believe that another “crisis” won’t happen between now and then?

Let’s see how markets react to tech melt down? Will we finally see exits get crowded or will more of the trillions sloshing about step in? Huge buying overnight in the techs that have been hurt this year and the US jobs report has all but been announced to be ignored for January saying too many anomalies to have faith. US FED will jawbone and support WS no matter what. “Irrational Exuberance” is never to be uttered again.

A brief aside re: BoE:

Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, says UK workers’ salaries are driving inflation and that their demands for pay increases should be resisted.

Bailey earns but a modest £495,000 per annum.
 
Governor of the Bank of England, says UK workers’ salaries are driving inflation and that their demands for pay increases should be resisted.

Well there was some thinking at the earlier stages of the EU that encouraging workers to move cross borders would help keep down wage driven inflationary pressures. And suddenly, who decides to leave the Union?
 
In all the tens of thousands of words I have seen written by members of the banking elite, be in CB or Investment Banks, whether Krugman or other WS sycophants not one has ever mentioned that inflationary pressure is due to monetary influence. Transitory due to pandemic, supply chain disruptions, fear of rising prices stoking more rises and of course those nasty working class folks demanding decent pay.

The only folks mentioning monetary sources for inflation are folks like us and those opposed to banks ruling the world.
 
milk went up $1 a gallon here feb 1, this is pretty much across the country :(
Costco yesterday I saw really high prices on everything. Stuff like Almonds that were up from $7.99 to $9.99 were now $10.99 all in under a year. Meat is crazy prices while ranchers go broke. Local delis and pizza joints raising prices substantially too. People ignore a rise from $7 to $8.50 but in reality it is a 20% price hike. $4 for a slice now!
On and on we can make a list.

Not to mention all the items still hard to find or out of stock temporarily.
 
US jobs report has all but been announced to be ignored for January saying too many anomalies to have faith.
I guess it is only ignored if bad news but amplified if good news! All the talk about seasonal adjustments and PT hires was supposed to make report nearly worthless according to WSJ and others yesterday. But today the BLS reports strong numbers and everyone forgot what they said yesterday.
 
In all the tens of thousands of words I have seen written by members of the banking elite, be in CB or Investment Banks, whether Krugman or other WS sycophants not one has ever mentioned that inflationary pressure is due to monetary influence. Transitory due to pandemic, supply chain disruptions, fear of rising prices stoking more rises and of course those nasty working class folks demanding decent pay.

The only folks mentioning monetary sources for inflation are folks like us and those opposed to banks ruling the world.

For want of other (meaningful) action, the Fed might try one or both of these: $1 Trillon banknote and/or 500-year T bonds? I'm kidding, of course. Sort of.
 
In all the tens of thousands of words I have seen written by members of the banking elite, be in CB or Investment Banks, whether Krugman or other WS sycophants not one has ever mentioned that inflationary pressure is due to monetary influence. Transitory due to pandemic, supply chain disruptions, fear of rising prices stoking more rises and of course those nasty working class folks demanding decent pay.

The only folks mentioning monetary sources for inflation are folks like us and those opposed to banks ruling the world.

Soon enough, even bad ol' MMT will be but a distant memory as the "now" monetary theory careers to Orwellian something. Just look @ what's happening out there now:

• Debt is good.
• Lender is slave to the borrower.
• Saving is punished.
• “Stability” now means increasing prices at a steady rate.
• The future funds the present. (nb: it is no longer incumbent on each generation to pay their debts)
• Democracy is ruled by monetary dictators.
• Ignorance is strength.
• Inflation is good.
• The Fed, once buyer of last resort for banks, is now buyer of last resort for Wall Street.
• Central Banks that should prevent inflation instead promote inflation and let it run hot.
• + lots more...
 
For want of other (meaningful) action, the Fed might try one or both of these: $1 Trillon banknote and/or 500-year T bonds? I'm kidding, of course. Sort of.
Not as far fetched as we hope, plus that does not reduce balance sheet holdings in reality.
 
Irritant of the day:
4" paint roller covers were $10 for a pack of 6 last year.
Today, same brand, $6 for a pack of 2.

4 bags of groceries @ $35/bag.
And we are "conservative" on what we buy.

I have a tough time believing the inflation figures given what I see when I go to the store.
 
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