Mystic,
Since 2010 the FED has been saying QT is coming all while expanding their balance sheet endlessly. Before 1/2020 when Covid hit they were already back in expansion mode in a big way as overnight lending went haywire, again. They will likely never sell anything and may simply slow the rollovers on maturing debt, most of which is years away.
FED balance sheet below $6T not again. FFR above 4% not again. QE and ZIRP is here to stay until the whole thing caves in on itself. Next year, next decade, mid century? No idea. But history is clear this will happen.
QT has begun in a few states acting responsibly re: their financial markets, but there remain a few
laggards -- USA Inc among them. So what follows are examples of action realized, action imminent, action proposed and action stalled and action reversed.
Examples of states that took action in 2021-2022 through 3 February 2022:
UK
As of 3 February BoE raised its policy rate by 25 basis points, to 0.50%, the second hike in a row, after having raised by 15 basis points at its December meeting.
Czechia
As of 3 February policy rate by 75 basis points to 4.5%, the highest since January 2002, and the sixth rate hike in a row since June.
Brazil
As of 2 February they upped their policy rate by 150 basis points, to 10.75%, the eighth hike in a row since March, totaling 875 basis points.
Armenia
As of 1 February they increased the policy rate by 25 basis points, to 8.0%, the eighth hike in a row, including the 50-basis-point hike in December, from liftoff at 4.25%.
Hungary
On 25 January Hungary hiked its policy rate by 50 basis points, to 2.9%, the highest since 2013.
Pakistan
On 24 January 24 Pakistan rested @ a policy rate of 9.75%, after three rate hikes totaling 275 basis points, including 100 basis points in December, and a shock-and-awe 150 basis points in October.
South Korea
On 14 January SK raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the third hike since August, totaling 75 basis points.
Examples of states that have announced they will take action in February 2022:
Mexico
Meeting on 10 February to address inflation that rose to 7.4% in November and December, the highest there since January 2001.
Russian Federation
Meeting on 11 February. At its last meeting on December 17, it hiked its policy rate by another 100 basis points to 8.5%, the seventh rate hike in 2021, totaling 425 basis points. Current inflation @ 8.4%.
New Zealand
Meeting on 23 February to address rising inflation which spiked to 5.9% in Q4.
The LAGGARDS:
USA
Powell announced the FRB might raise its policy rate on March 16 and that it would start QT later this year.
European Union
The ECB announced it is considering imposition of QE and policy rate hikes on the heels of 5.1% average inflation across the Eurozone.
Japan
While its policy rate remains -0.1%, it it began tapering its ultra-massive QE in the fall of 2020 and since May 2021, its balance sheet has flattened out, regardless of what it said in its announcements.
OZ
On 1 February they announced that QE will end on 10 February, but that the current policy rate of 0.1% will be maintained.
Canada
They ended their massive QE in December 2021 and reduced their national balance sheet by 13% -- mainly through shedding short-term T-bills and repos. At its meeting on 26 January, the state bank maintained its policy rate at 0.25%, but paved the way for a rate hike at its next meeting on March 2.
The WTF:
China
PRC has actually crept back into QE by lowering its policy rates and thus reducing the national prime loan rate by 10 basis points (to 3.7%). While the state is struggling with the collapse of the highly leveraged real estate development sector -- a huge contributor to economic growth -- inflation in PRC has eased to 1.5%.
Turkey
The state's banking system ought to write a book called
How To Destroy A Curreny In The Least Amount Of Time: in the midst of raging inflation – 49% in January 2022 (!) – in summer 2021 the state bank CUT its policy rate to 14% from 19% after Erdogan fired the head of the central bank. Erdogan is now trying to control inflation by firing the head of the state's main statistical agency.