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Prices.... Going Up!!!

Let's add dog food. We buy Kirkland Premium (better than Hills and way cheaper still) and what used to be a 40 pound bag is now a 35 pound bag and the price is up from $34 to $37 (rounding). So a 10% price hike and a 12% reduction in size.
 
Let's add dog food. We buy Kirkland Premium (better than Hills and way cheaper still) and what used to be a 40 pound bag is now a 35 pound bag and the price is up from $34 to $37 (rounding). So a 10% price hike and a 12% reduction in size.
And try to find canned cat food. Yeez. I've been ordering it online to get a decent choice.
 
“I was buying a large bag of Purina dog chow for my dog at Walmart and standing in line at the check out.

“A woman behind me asked if I had a dog.

“On impulse, I told her that no, I was starting the Purina Diet again although I probably shouldn’t because I’d ended up in the hospital last time, but that I’d lost 50 pounds before I awakened in an intensive care ward with tubes coming out of most of my orifices and IVs in both arms.

“I told her that it was essentially a perfect diet and that the way that it works is to load your pants pockets with Purina nuggets and simply eat one or two every time you feel hungry and that the food is nutritionally complete so I was going to try it again.

“I have to mention here that practically everyone in the line was by now enthralled with my story, particularly a guy who was behind her.

“Horrified, she asked if I’d ended up in the hospital in that condition because I had been poisoned by the dog food. I told her no; I stepped off a curb to sniff a poodle’s ass and a car hit me.

“I thought the guy behind her was going to have a heart attack he was laughing so hard.”
 
Preparing for the next consumer price hike (spike): Producer Price Index, January 2022, +1.0%

The cost of goods and services that producers are paying – costs which are typically passed on to consumers – increased 1.0% in January 2022 from December 2021 (seasonally adjusted), according to the Producer Price Index for Final Demand (PPI) report compiled and released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday 15 February 2022.

Chart of PPI percent monthly change trends from January 2010 through December 2021:

upload_2022-2-16_9-30-51.jpeg
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2022

Excluding the volatile energy and food sectors, CORE PPI increased by 8.4% between January 2021 and January 2022. Including energy and food, overal PPI increased 9.8% between January 2021 and January 2022. So that's roughly an increase of 10% between 1/1/2021 and 1/31/2022.

Past the -- again -- "volatile" food and energy sectors and assorted other manufactured goods, what is very telling in the PPI report released on 15 February 2022 is that producer price inflation has spread -- seriously -- to the (usually less volatile) services sector. PPI Services increased 0.7% between December 2021 and January 2022.

Examples of PPI Services @ which costs increased significantly over the (approximately) 30-day period:

- Construction (+3.6%)
- Retail (apparel, jewelry, footwear, accessories (+4.2%)
- Hospital outpatient care (+1.6%)
- Dental care (+1.8%)
- Machinery and vehicle wholesaling (+4.3%)
- Travel accommodation services (5.4%)
- Portfolio management (+1.9%)

A graphic look at the overall PPI Services percent change trendsince January 2010:

upload_2022-2-16_9-44-27.jpeg
Source: BLS, February 2022

Prediction: Current (February 2022) PPI for Final Demand, which reflects increased costs for companies that maufacture goods and/or provide services, will drive higher consumer price inflation over the next few months as producers of all stripes pass their increased costs to consumers, thus bumping up the overall CPI by still more.
 
^^^ PS: Supply-chain problems also still plague producers and thus are (also still) contributing to higher producer & consumer prices, particularly for clothes, appliances, and used motor vehicles, but we'll save that for a separate analysis.
 
Do you remember when a half gallon of ice cream became a quart and a half for the same price? (likely early 80's inflation era - its been a while).
Well, it seems like that is happening again, rather than just raising prices, more.
Winco Ice Cream containers just went to a smaller quart and a quarter half-gallon, w/out raising the prices more (I go through one a week). The container seemed really small in my hand, and then I looked when we got home. Yep, deflationary inflation.
 
While not about price inflation per se, the topic of the Gross National Debt of the USA, which as of end January 2022 reached $30 trillion, is of -- ahem -- related interest insofar as one ( or me, at least) must wonder WHO (and WHERE) is continuing to purchase US Treasury securities? A "mere" $6.5 trillion in such securites were purchased between March 2020 and 31 December 2021. It's incredible. So, WHO and WHERE are the buyers of what to most -- me at least -- would seem as but very ugly investment instruments? Why "ugly"? Well because of the historically low yields: < 1% for short term bonds and < 2% for 10-year bonds.

Who'd wanna invest in so accute an economic clown show to the tune of $6.5 trillion over the immediate past 22 months?

Well, large domestic entities including pension funds, retirement investment fund managers, big (and not big) banks - including The Fed, miscellaneous institional investors and Regular Joes are still -- incredibly -- sufficiently optimistic (or stupid/clueless) as to have bought up approximately 65% of that $6.5 trillion. The balance were purchased by FOREIGN entities -- nation states, mainly. Who? Which? Where?

Twelve largest foreign purchasers of US treasury securities Dec 2020 to Dec 2021 aka MEET YOUR FOREIGN CREDITORS:

- Japan: $1.3 billion
- China: $1.07 billion
- United Kindom: $647 billion
- Ireland: $334 billion
- Luxembourg: $323 billion
- Switzerland: #288 billion
- Belgium: $272 billion
- Cayman Islands: $262 billion
- Taiwan: $251 billion
- Brazil: $244 billion
- Hong Kong: $226 billion (nb: brining total PRC investment to over $1.2 billion)
- France: $224 billion

What's more, in a couple of cases, the net Y/Y increase (December 2020/December 2021) in the level of investment in US treasury securities is kinda astounding:

- UK: +47% Y/Y (well, it's our trusty Five Eyes ally, so no surprises here)
- France: +101% Y/Y (WHAT!?)

None of the others come even close; third on the Y/Y list is, at +17%, Cayman Islands.

Vote of confidence or, um, something else?
 
Profits among the S&P 500 rose by 22% in the final quarter of 2021 and by almost 50% over the entirety of 2021. Maybe it’s not (just?) “higher wages” that's driving inflation...
 
elections have consequences............
yeah, leaving the gold standard back in the 70's has allowed this MMT to expand and grow, got it. But it has been a "hockey stick" phenomenon. And now we're on the high end of the handle.....

and petroleum is not just used to make gas....some people just don't understand that...
 
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