Preparing for the next
consumer price hike (spike): Producer Price Index, January 2022, +1.0%
The cost of goods and services that producers are paying – costs which are typically passed on to consumers – increased 1.0% in January 2022 from December 2021 (seasonally adjusted), according to the Producer Price Index for Final Demand (PPI) report compiled and released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday 15 February 2022.
Chart of PPI
percent monthly change trends from January 2010 through December 2021:
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2022
Excluding the volatile energy and food sectors, CORE PPI increased by 8.4% between January 2021 and January 2022. Including energy and food, overal PPI increased 9.8% between January 2021 and January 2022. So that's roughly an increase of 10% between 1/1/2021 and 1/31/2022.
Past the -- again -- "volatile" food and energy sectors and assorted other manufactured goods, what is very telling in the PPI report released on 15 February 2022 is that
producer price inflation has spread -- seriously -- to the (usually less volatile) services sector. PPI Services increased 0.7% between December 2021 and January 2022.
Examples of PPI Services @ which costs increased significantly over the (approximately) 30-day period:
- Construction (+3.6%)
- Retail (apparel, jewelry, footwear, accessories (+4.2%)
- Hospital outpatient care (+1.6%)
- Dental care (+1.8%)
- Machinery and vehicle wholesaling (+4.3%)
- Travel accommodation services (5.4%)
- Portfolio management (+1.9%)
A graphic look at the overall PPI Services percent change trendsince January 2010:
Source: BLS, February 2022
Prediction: Current (February 2022) PPI for Final Demand, which reflects increased costs for companies that maufacture goods and/or provide services, will drive higher consumer price inflation over the next few months as producers of all stripes pass their increased costs to consumers, thus bumping up the overall CPI by still more.