Consequences of Prices Going Up:
Rising asking --and presumably selling -- prices of new and used automobiles and light trucks, since before the pandemic phenomenon set in, has taken on toll of the rate of purchase of new and used vehicles. Accoding to the Standard & Poor Global Mobility report released this week, the
average age of all cars and light trucks in operation thus far in 2022 rose to a new record of 12.2 years:
Average Age of Automobiles & Light Trucks in Operation, 1974 - April 2022
Source: S&P Mobility Report 2022
As 12.2 years includes automobiles and trucks, what are the average ages, respectively, of automobiles only and trucks only in operation as of this point in 2022?
- Average age of automobiles in operation @ 2022: 11.6 years
- Average age of light trucks in operation @ 2022: 13.1 years
So what happened re: the great upward surge in new vehicle sales since 2019?
There was no great upward surge.
There has been, in fact, a marked decline in sales of new vehicles since 2019.
According to data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (a research center within the U.S. Department of Commerce), the sales level of new vehicles peaked in 2016, held more or less steady in 2017-2019, then plunged in 2020 to level of sales not seen since the late 1970s, where it has remained through December 2021:
U.S. New Vehicle Sales (millions of vehicles) 1977-2021
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Consequence of Longer Operation: Reduction in Scrappage
According to the same S&P Mobility report, the number of vehicles that were scrapped fell to a little over 11 million vehicles, amounting to a scrappage rate of 4.2% of total VIO, the lowest scrappage rate in two decades. To contrast: in 2020, approximately 15 million vehicles were scrapped, i.e., a scrappage rate of 5.6%.