Prices.... Going Up!!!

[Mystic]

Have a dog on a special diet for pancreatitis.
Searched high and low for food made here with clean ingredients, low fat, no grain.
Ended up with Farmina, made in Italy.

Price a month ago: $60 for 15#
Price today: $85

That brand of pet food is among the most expensive over here, but per the recent USD~EURO Xchange rate, it is a lot cheaper thatn $85 here for a 7-kgm (ie, 15 lbs) bag.

A special cat food made by Royal Canin is also much cheaper over here, even cheaper than the price I paid seven years ago in California.

 

[Mystic]

That's easy. Rent the dog to young men wanting to meet young women. (Or vice versa.) Dogs almost always attract the opposite sex. The dog gets walked, the young men/women meet possible mates, and you get paid.

I would guess that at least some college guys get dogs, just for that reason.

Indeed, a scheme that has been proven to work. Puppies~very young doggies are more effective still.

 

[Mystic]

Yup, prices going up.
Most people realize inflation costs but a radio dj made the point a few days ago that a year of 8.5% inflation will effectively take 1 monthly paycheck per year.
Do you like getting by for a year on 11 paychecks?
A second year of the same inflation will effectively take ANOTHER monthly check.
How do you like going a year on 10 monthly paychecks?
Is anyone getting annual raises of 8.5% just to stay even?
Not trying to sound political because inflation affects us all no matter what party is in control...

 

[Mystic]

Past all that, I've calculated that I have, at present, funds sufficient to last me the rest of my life, as long as I die on or before 30 June 2022.

 

[Mystic]

Prices Going Up & Prices Going Down: American Real Estate (June 2022)

The average cost of a property mortgage in America increased yesterday.

As of Monday 13 June 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.18%, up from 5.85% on Friday 10 June 2022.

Putting aside the sheer magnitude of the increase, this is also the highest mortgage rate since collection of the daily data began in April 2009.

US NATIONAL AVERAGE 30-YR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE a/o 13 JUNE 2022 (2017-2022)

Source: Mortgage News Daily

Many of us, of course, recall times @ which mortgage rates were much higher. For example, I had a rate of 8.25% -- for which I paid points to achieve -- wAy back in 1988. So to us, even 6.18% seems low...

US NATIONAL AVERAGE 30-YR FIXED MORTGAGE RATES (1971-2022)

Source: Freddie Mac

... but then back in 1988 my wages were strong and stayed well ahead of inflation. That is NOT the scenario in which potential mortage buyers find themselves in June 2022.

HOUSING: PRICES ALREADY DECLINING

As the mortgage rate increases, there will be downward pressure exerted on the purchase cost of dwelling units of all types, @ least where a mortgage is a factor. Historically, each increase in the mortgage rate, regardless of magnitude, is accompanied by the exit of a (new) layer of potential buyers from the market. Concomitantly, transaction volume sags, and available residential units become stagnant, sitting on the market as inventory accumulates. "Experts" say this cannot happen in America. It can and in fact it was already happening in May 2022, before the recent mortgage rate increase, as evidenced by the significant increase in the number of units in inventory per active listing statistics:

PERCENT CHANGE - MONTH-OVER-MONTH - ACTIVE LISTINGS (AUGUST 2017-MAY 2022)

Source: Realtor.Com

Active listings increased for two reasons:

1. Falling Sales
2. Increase in New Listings

Consequence is an UPSURGE IN PRICE REDUCTIONS -- again indication of price of housing going down.

PERCENT CHANGE - YEAR-OVER-YEAR - PRICE REDUCTIONS (MAY 2017-MAY 2022)

Source: Realtor.Com

This is how it is AND this is how it will continue to go for the next several fiscal quarters:

Asking prices will be reduced to that point where the next buyer(s) can afford to purchase a mortgage at the going rate.

 

[NH-MAN]

Prices Going Up & Prices Going Down: American Real Estate (June 2022)

The average cost of a property mortgage in America increased yesterday.

As of Monday 13 June 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.18%, up from 5.85% on Friday 10 June 2022.

Putting aside the sheer magnitude of the increase, this is also the highest mortgage rate since collection of the daily data began in April 2009.

US NATIONAL AVERAGE 30-YR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE a/o 13 JUNE 2022 (2017-2022)
View attachment 2592390
Source: Mortgage News Daily

Many of us, of course, recall times @ which mortgage rates were much higher. For example, I had a rate of 8.25% -- for which I paid points to achieve -- wAy back in 1988. So to us, even 6.18% seems low...

US NATIONAL AVERAGE 30-YR FIXED MORTGAGE RATES (1971-2022)
View attachment 2592391
Source: Freddie Mac

... but then back in 1988 my wages were strong and stayed well ahead of inflation. That is NOT the scenario in which potential mortage buyers find themselves in June 2022.

HOUSING: PRICES ALREADY DECLINING

As the mortgage rate increases, there will be downward pressure exerted on the purchase cost of dwelling units of all types, @ least where a mortgage is a factor. Historically, each increase in the mortgage rate, regardless of magnitude, is accompanied by the exit of a (new) layer of potential buyers from the market. Concomitantly, transaction volume sags, and available residential units become stagnant, sitting on the market as inventory accumulates. "Experts" say this cannot happen in America. It can and in fact it was already happening in May 2022, before the recent mortgage rate increase, as evidenced by the significant increase in the number of units in inventory per active listing statistics:

PERCENT CHANGE - MONTH-OVER-MONTH - ACTIVE LISTINGS (AUGUST 2017-MAY 2022)
View attachment 2592395
Source: Realtor.Com

Active listings increased for two reasons:

1. Falling Sales
2. Increase in New Listings

Consequence is an UPSURGE IN PRICE REDUCTIONS -- again indication of price of housing going down.

PERCENT CHANGE - YEAR-OVER-YEAR - PRICE REDUCTIONS (MAY 2017-MAY 2022)
View attachment 2592396
Source: Realtor.Com

This is how it is AND this is how it will continue to go for the next several fiscal quarters:

Asking prices will be reduced to that point where the next buyer(s) can afford to purchase a mortgage at the going rate.

My Cousin Laurie just got 69K over asking price on their three story apt house in Fall River Mass

 

[BillyTheKid]

$69,000 over asking ? For Fall River ? Wow.
Looks like we're gonna be stuck in this house for quite a while...there's no place to go.

 

[grinx76]

i use the Canned Clam Index

before COVID (2018/19), $1.89 per can @ normal price
once COVID hit, been @ $2.39 steady

that's a helluva jump
for canned clams

 

[OnTheBlitz]

I use the Chicken Wrapped Pig Skin Index. Nothing to do with Covid.

$9.99 1/1/21, Now:

40%+ Increase.

 

[NH-MAN]

$69,000 over asking ? For Fall River ? Wow.
Looks like we're gonna be stuck in this house for quite a while...there's no place to go.

I know huh, just a Tripple decker, it was nice but nothing special. I have seen on FB here in NH from others for sale signs on some houses have been noticed to be up longer than a day or so, versus being gone immediately.

 

[OnTheBlitz]

There's also the Dreambone Index. This correlates closely with the Chicken Wrapped Pig Skin Index.

$8.99 1/1/21, Now:

44% increase.

Out of control inflation is not Pet Friendly.

 

[Mystic]

My Cousin Laurie just got 69K over asking price on their three story apt house in Fall River Mass

There will always be anomolies~outliers w/ deep pockets and/or irrational exuberance but they are and will become increasingly the exception. Even in vaunted Southern California, the wild days of up-bidding @ house showings is slowing considerably. Out of curiosity, do you know anything about the bidder/buyer(s)? Wealthy Boston regionals looking to settle to a more quiet clime (i.e., Bristol County)? Institutional~investor/firm-backed buyers w/ a mind to ABnB'ing the place? Is/has their been a sustained "fast purchase" trend in the area o'er the last few months indicative of an institutionally-backed RE sweep?

 

[Mystic]

There's also the Dreambone Index. This correlates closely to the Chicken Wrapped Pig Skin Index.

$8.99 1/1/21, Now:
View attachment 2592480
44% increase.

Out of control inflation is not Pet Friendly.

Sellers will get'cha every time on increases to fido's favorites, lol. Some pet people would, I swear, sell their blood in order to afford their pooches' (and felines') favorite tr/eats.

 

[NH-MAN]

There will always be anomolies~outliers w/ deep pockets and/or irrational exuberance but they are and will become increasingly the exception. Even in vaunted Southern California, the wild days of up-bidding @ house showings is slowing considerably. Out of curiosity, do you know anything about the bidder/buyer(s)? Wealthy Boston regionals looking to settle to a more quiet clime (i.e., Bristol County)? Institutional~investor/firm-backed buyers w/ a mind to ABnB'ing the place? Is/has their been a sustained "fast purchase" trend in the area o'er the last few months indicative of an institutionally-backed RE sweep?

No I do not, but that is the normal here, everyone outbidding and forgoing home inspections ect. Most listings the last 6 months if you don't hop on it within 1/2 of it hitting the internet you probably already lost it.

 

[BillyTheKid]

That's what i'm hearing too. Houses are gone as soon as they hit the market, sometimes sooner, and offers are over asking. Plus, i've heard about buyers having to write a letter to the seller telling them why they should get the house....that's just nuts !

It can't stay like this for much longer.

 

[grinx76]

That's what i'm hearing too. Houses are gone as soon as they hit the market, sometimes sooner, and offers are over asking. Plus, i've heard about buyers having to write a letter to the seller telling them why they should get the house....that's just nuts !

It can't stay like this for much longer.

perfect.

when i sell, i wanna hold a Dance-Off for all the contenders

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

 

[BillyTheKid]

I know huh, just a Tripple decker, it was nice but nothing special.

Lots of rental income there. Of course, the existing tenants will be forced out by rent increases.

 

[OBMG74]

Out of control inflation is not Pet Friendly.

Vet visits are sky, too.
When our 13 year and 14 year old dogs are gone, we are out of the pet business.
Can't afford it.
Our daughter has 2 dogs that we can visit.

 

[Mystic]

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (14 June 2022)

Report: Producer Price Index (PPI) for May 2022

Producer prices in the US increased 0.8% during May 2022, following a 0.4% rise in April 2022.

Costs of goods increased 1.4% overall. The largest increase was for gasoline (8.4%) followed by jet fuel, residential natural gas, steel mill products, diesel fuel, and processed young chickens.

Cost of services increased 0.4%, overall, with the largest increase (2.9%) for transportation and warehousing services associated with truck transport of freight.

 

[orsen]

$9.20 a gallon now

regular gas and diesel are tied at 2.29\L
this is after an 11cent\L Ontario tax break

.