Prices.... Going Up!!!

[grinx76]

I prefer to be part of the solution instead of the problem. I own two rentals - one residential, and one commercial. Both are rented well under the going rate, and I've turned down better offers. The commercial rental has provisions for slight increase to cover increase in property taxes. The residential lease expired two years ago, and is evergreen now. Military man, school teacher wife, and two small children.

Both tenants are solid as a rock, and glad that I'm not jacking the rent. Hard to find good folks like that.

thank you, some of us really appreciate it

i was renting a home for 12 years. initially 1yr lease, then 2yr, then 2yr then the landlord stopped sending them.
i told him if you keep the rent the same, i will keep renting and taking care of the inside/outside property, which i did.
during 2020, he had 3 rental homes. his 2 kids were entering college and he needed the $$, he was selling all 3 so he said buy it or move in 30 days so i can sell it to someone else
i just had happened to make a little money from precious metals, had enough for downpayment and closing costs and ended up buying the place. he gave me a killer deal to be done in 30 days, i got a stupid-cheap mtg rate and now who knows what this shack is worth

 

[usedto]

thank you, some of us really appreciate it

I told my renter that I would sell him the house any time he was interested in buying it. (I'd just do a 1031 exchange).

I think the new interest rates put the damper on that.

 

[quiet]

The home market tanked in 06 because jobless owners couldn't make the payments. That's not going to be the case this time around. The working poor will continue to make the 2.99% monthly with no desire or need to sell into a declining market. They will sit tight, supply will remain slim, prices will remain stable, rents will zoom from lack of units.
Basically, the 1/4-acre 3-bedroom 2-bath rambler 30% price increases are a permanent reset with a slight national dip and rise here and there for about 2 years, pace inflation for about 5 after that, regardless of conflicts. Then it will be off to the races again.
Eggs, bread, milk and gas? I couldn't tell you.
Disclaimer, heavy into rent units since 82.

 

[spicer]

I prefer to be part of the solution instead of the problem. I own two rentals - one residential, and one commercial. Both are rented well under the going rate, and I've turned down better offers. The commercial rental has provisions for slight increase to cover increase in property taxes. The residential lease expired two years ago, and is evergreen now. Military man, school teacher wife, and two small children.

Both tenants are solid as a rock, and glad that I'm not jacking the rent. Hard to find good folks like that.

I don't think of it in terms of being part of the solution just a way of being. I own a number of residential properties and rent them well below the going rate and do not increase rents except, sometimes, to match tax increases, good folks are the way and I prefer to enable them. No leases, only one on one agreements, no nickle and dime expenses or blocked drain calls, it's a relationship and we take care of each other, long term renters can buy the house under very good terms anytime they desire and are able. My tenants are very stable and conscientious, take care of property as though it is their own, example of military man, school teacher wife and two small children are typical. Management is minimal, simple accounting, no loans on any of it. If I listened to professional real estate and property managers and financial advisors with fees and overhead none of this would be possible. I've been doing this since the early eighties, a philosophical approach that has at it's foundation no debt.

 

[oldflame]

Too many people are looking for a single silver bullet, which doesn't exist. Unfortunately, too many others promise such a solution.

 

[Jeffery]

Yeah, angry to say the least.

Here's the PPS story for these five Big Oil players (presented in alpha order) since May 2021, i.e., YoY, as of 14 JUNE 2022 @ 3:43AM EASTERN TIME:

View attachment 2593184
View attachment 2593185
View attachment 2593186
View attachment 2593187
View attachment 2593188
View attachment 2593189
Sources: S&P 500 / FTSE 100

Note that the two top-performing firms in the Petroleum Sector, YoY, are:

View attachment 2593190
Source: S&P 500

In the past week's blood-letting across bourses worldwide, only CONOCO-PHILLIPS saw a PPS decline among these players, but given a YoY increase in PPS of 82.26, I imagine "CP" will weather the decline valiantly.

PS: Your comment about BP, i.e., "the absence of Rosneft from the first quarter underlying result" is evident in BP's PPS increase, YoY, of "only" 30.73%, the lowest among the big players cited above.

If it was all about corporate greed, why weren't oil companies charging $5/gallon 3 years ago when the economy was booming?

 

[Mystic]

If it was all about corporate greed, why weren't oil companies charging $5/gallon 3 years ago when the economy was booming?

Only God knows.

 

[baeron]

If it was all about corporate greed, why weren't oil companies charging $5/gallon 3 years ago when the economy was booming?

Covid

Tons of people staying home and working from home.

 

[Mystic]

If it was all about corporate greed, why weren't oil companies charging $5/gallon 3 years ago when the economy was booming?

With WTI CRUDE active market cost, as of this morning (18 June 2022 @ 2:31AM EASTERN) opening at a FOUR-WEEK LOW of $109.56/Bbl (nb: BRENT CRUDE @ $113.12), as well as "spot market" GASOLINE also down, to $3.79, we can all watch together what, if any, effect -- UP, DOWN, OR SUSTAIN -- these market fluctuations will have @ The Retail Pumps.

BTW, WTI CRUDE, for the week, is down 8.8%, owing (presumably) to the recent wave of aggressive (interest) rate hikes (especially the US Fed's 75 basis points hike) around the world and mounting concerns regarding the onset (or arrival, in many states) of economic recession.

Recall also that the International Energy Agency (IEA), on Wednesday 15 June 2022, issued an adverse report on (overall) NRG costs due to a combination of rising oil prices and weakening economic forecasts, which conspire to inhibit investment fearing diminshed future demand for product.

Exacerbating these ^^^ developments are further economic sanctions, announced (pronounced?) by USA Inc this week, on firms in ...

- China
- Iran
- United Arab Emirates

... that are presumed to be linked to the Iranian petrochemicals industry.

Finally, the apparent "falling out" this past week among the OPEC+, i.e., their failure to reach agreement regarding output targets, certainly further exacerbates / excites the myriad "uncertainties" already affecting the Big Oil sector of the world's commodities market.

Enjoy the ride.

 

[Mystic]

Covid

Tons of people staying home and working from home.

Wait until COVID PART III. Or is it IV @ this point?

 

[Mystic]

A financial health indicant that didn't occur to me until this morning: BANKRUPTCY

N COMPANY (NOT INDIVIDUAL) BANKRUPTCIES FILED BY COUNTRY MOST TO FEWEST DURING MONTH IN COLUMN #4:


Note1 : Data for Switzerland and Spain are outdated b/c both governments' primary federal financial agencies ceased providing data to International Trading Economics Board as of 31 December 2020.

Note 2: Fresh data (i.e., Q1 2022) still unavailable for Russian Federation, Italy, and Luxembourg.

Note: 3: Cannot show N Bankruptcies, Corporate or Individual, for CHINA as PRC government does not share such data beyond the financial governance unit of the CPC.

PS: The chart above includes only the twelve (12) states with the HIGHEST N of (reported) company/corporate bankruptcies.

 

[Mystic]

CARS, SUVs & LIGHT TRUCKS MARKET UPDATE

SUVs and Light Trucks: Prices going down (inventories high)
All Cars: Prices going up (inventories low)
Compact Cars: Prices going up most (inventories very low)

According to a report released on Friday 17 June 2022 by Cox Automotive (https://www.coxautoinc.com/), rising fuel prices which have doubled since the beginning of 2021 have pushed buying patterns away from the previously highest-demand and most profitable models – light trucks and SUVs – the manufacture and delivery of which automakers had prioritized even as they struggled with semiconductor shortages and supply-chain chaos, to economical cars and compact SUVs.

Over the last 8-10 weeks, dealers have come to appreciate that the inventory they do have is, well, not the inventory they need to satisfy the demand of customers -- especially in USA -- for fuel-efficient compact vehicles.

As cars shift, so do buying patterns.

NEW VEHICLE INVENTORY - N DAYS INVENTORY (USA DEALERSHIPS)

Source: Cox Automotive / 17 June 2022

Owing to a shortage of inventory in greatest demand, i.e., compact and mid-size cars, overall sales in the retail automotive sector (USA) have, per data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), declined 29.6% YoY (i.e., May 2021 through May 2022).

As a result, the average listing price of new compact and mid-size cars has surged, between mid February 2022 and the first week of June 2022, to $45,495 -- the mean listing price increased 12% in May 2022 alone.

AVERAGE NEW CAR LISTING PRICE (DECEMBER 2018 - APRIL 2022)

Source: Cox Automotive / 17 June 2022

 

[Mystic]

Price influence: U.S. Manufacturing Production (May 2022)

The US National Association of Manufacturers reports that U.S. manufacturing production output declined 0.1% during May 2022, this against an expected increase of 0.3% for that same period. Leading the overall decline was -0.2% durable goods, including wood products (-2.6%) and machinery (-2.1%). Declines among non-durable goods included food, beverages, tobacco products, and paper products.

 

[spicer]

CARS, SUVs & LIGHT TRUCKS MARKET UPDATE

SUVs and Light Trucks: Prices going down (inventories high)
All Cars: Prices going up (inventories low)
Compact Cars: Prices going up most (inventories very low)

According to a report released on Friday 17 June 2022 by Cox Automotive (https://www.coxautoinc.com/), rising fuel prices which have doubled since the beginning of 2021 have pushed buying patterns away from the previously highest-demand and most profitable models – light trucks and SUVs – the manufacture and delivery of which automakers had prioritized even as they struggled with semiconductor shortages and supply-chain chaos, to economical cars and compact SUVs.

Over the last 8-10 weeks, dealers have come to appreciate that the inventory they do have is, well, not the inventory they need to satisfy the demand of customers -- especially in USA -- for fuel-efficient compact vehicles.

As cars shift, so do buying patterns.

NEW VEHICLE INVENTORY - N DAYS INVENTORY (USA DEALERSHIPS)
View attachment 2595649
Source: Cox Automotive / 17 June 2022

Owing to a shortage of inventory in greatest demand, i.e., compact and mid-size cars, overall sales in the retail automotive sector (USA) have, per data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), declined 29.6% YoY (i.e., May 2021 through May 2022).

As a result, the average listing price of new compact and mid-size cars has surged, between mid February 2022 and the first week of June 2022, to $45,495 -- the mean listing price increased 12% in May 2022 alone.

AVERAGE NEW CAR LISTING PRICE (DECEMBER 2018 - APRIL 2022)
View attachment 2595651
Source: Cox Automotive / 17 June 2022

All the charts, data, graphs... war, munitions, societal, financial, frontiers of knowledge imagined and applied... range back, way back, imagine a hologram, your consciousness being the illumination, everything is connected under common influence. Nothing of essence has changed across time, the big secret hidden in plain view. Amazing, leaves one confounded if not for what is in plain view.

 

[8-Tracked]

Same street and significant lower gas prices today.
Told ya it's going down soon. Supply demand changing markets. Course global demand / supply should dictate the market; and demand is globally not rising, it was significantly decreasing for over two years already. And that then prices go up is in that case a little weird you see
Note the unreadable Esso price is $224.3 CAD.
My latest and for now final two cents on this threads posts / topic / content!
.
(My advice; if you or anybody else, doesn't like certain posts, threads, topics, members etc etc. Just don't watch it then; or use your 'ignore button's, that's also how I keep my AK Zen so to speak.)

 

[Mystic]

Re: Prices not going up...

As of today (20 June 2022), the trading index for COPPER reached a 15-month low of USD 3.97 per lb. The price for copper, which was trading at USD 4.92 per lb as recently as 7 March 2022, has declined steadily for the last 14 weeks.

The signiifcance of this lower price, a trend that started in mid March '22 and has steadily declined tuntil today's value, is this: Copper is regarded as a leading indicator of the health of the global economy owing to the metal's widespread application, as a fundamental raw material, in products and services occurring across diverse industrial and commercial sectors, including (but not lmited to) home appliances, home entertainment, IT~computing & related, electronics in general, industrial power generation and transmission.

Sustained declining copper prices suggest sluggish demand and imminent economic slowdown.

A (paradoxical?) consequence is a contraction in the N of manufactured goods that could well result in TOO MUCH MONEY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS, and thus only further exacerbating the goods (and services) inflation in USA and EU, etc.

 

[NH-MAN]

Re: Prices not going up...

As of today (20 June 2022), the trading index for COPPER reached a 15-month low of USD 3.97 per lb. The price for copper, which was trading at USD 4.92 per lb as recently as 7 March 2022, has declined steadily for the last 14 weeks.

The signiifcance of this lower price, a trend that started in mid March '22 and has steadily declined tuntil today's value, is this: Copper is regarded as a leading indicator of the health of the global economy owing to the metal's widespread application, as a fundamental raw material, in products and services occurring across diverse industrial and commercial sectors, including (but not lmited to) home appliances, home entertainment, IT~computing & related, electronics in general, industrial power generation and transmission.

Sustained declining copper prices suggest sluggish demand and imminent economic slowdown.

I am not saying how much an impact it would make but homes are mostly PEX plumbing VS copper now but some of that should be offset by winding electric motors for Cars

Not targeting copper in mining for instance while mining for lithium, iron and copper and other minerals are kind of now a byproduct to that which might lower prices. IDK just thinking out loud.

 

[Mystic]

I am not saying how much an impact it would make but homes are mostly PEX plumbing...

Plastic (vs copper) plumbing materials in construction would not account for what is almost a 15-consecutive-week decline in the price. A decline in automotive manufacturing, worldwide, is a likely contributor, but most likely the biggest contribitor is decline in manufacturing of electronics and electrical power & transmission equipement/materials worldwide. IOW demand for copper wire needed for "wiring" stuff is off/down/slow. That's my hunch, we'll see/learn more in the coming weeks and months if/as activity/productivity among industrial~manufacturing sectors that are "copper dependent" remain steady, advance (recover), or continue to decline.

 

[Mystic]

Prices Going Up & Prices Going Down: American Real Estate (June 2022)

The average cost of a property mortgage in America increased yesterday.

As of Monday 13 June 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.18%, up from 5.85% on Friday 10 June 2022.

Putting aside the sheer magnitude of the increase, this is also the highest mortgage rate since collection of the daily data began in April 2009.

US NATIONAL AVERAGE 30-YR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE a/o 13 JUNE 2022 (2017-2022)
View attachment 2592390
Source: Mortgage News Daily

Many of us, of course, recall times @ which mortgage rates were much higher. For example, I had a rate of 8.25% -- for which I paid points to achieve -- wAy back in 1988. So to us, even 6.18% seems low...

US NATIONAL AVERAGE 30-YR FIXED MORTGAGE RATES (1971-2022)
View attachment 2592391
Source: Freddie Mac

... but then back in 1988 my wages were strong and stayed well ahead of inflation. That is NOT the scenario in which potential mortage buyers find themselves in June 2022.

HOUSING: PRICES ALREADY DECLINING

As the mortgage rate increases, there will be downward pressure exerted on the purchase cost of dwelling units of all types, @ least where a mortgage is a factor. Historically, each increase in the mortgage rate, regardless of magnitude, is accompanied by the exit of a (new) layer of potential buyers from the market. Concomitantly, transaction volume sags, and available residential units become stagnant, sitting on the market as inventory accumulates. "Experts" say this cannot happen in America. It can and in fact it was already happening in May 2022, before the recent mortgage rate increase, as evidenced by the significant increase in the number of units in inventory per active listing statistics:

PERCENT CHANGE - MONTH-OVER-MONTH - ACTIVE LISTINGS (AUGUST 2017-MAY 2022)
View attachment 2592395
Source: Realtor.Com

Active listings increased for two reasons:

1. Falling Sales
2. Increase in New Listings

Consequence is an UPSURGE IN PRICE REDUCTIONS -- again indication of price of housing going down.

PERCENT CHANGE - YEAR-OVER-YEAR - PRICE REDUCTIONS (MAY 2017-MAY 2022)
View attachment 2592396
Source: Realtor.Com

This is how it is AND this is how it will continue to go for the next several fiscal quarters:

Asking prices will be reduced to that point where the next buyer(s) can afford to purchase a mortgage at the going rate.

Forgot to add that the Fed's hike of interest rates and concomitant increase in mortgage rates is gonna do more than cool housing market bids and dampen prices; it's gonna kill a lotta folks who live already @ the margins paying doen ARM (adjustable-rate mortgages), the monthly "cost" of which are gonna (already) climb.

 

[reddodge053]

Forgot to add that the Fed's hike of interest rates and concomitant increase in mortgage rates is gonna do more than cool housing market bids and dampen prices; it's gonna kill a lotta folks who live already @ the margins paying doen ARM (adjustable-rate mortgages), the monthly "cost" of which are gonna (already) climb.

True that,i'm glad we got fixed rate!! However going to need a new roof before too mucch longer. I'm hoping it'll last cpl more years!