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Prices.... Going Up!!!

Where did all these new home buyers with lots of cash and great credit live 5 years ago?
 
About a month ago, I found (on the side of the road) a 24"x96" sheet of 1/2" plywood screwed to two 2x6x8's.

I valued it at about $40.

I guess I need to rethink that valuation.

I have quite the collection of good, reasonably clean, usable wood found either on the side of the road or pulled from my dumpster.

I'll have to take a pic next time I'm at my shop.

I don't think I've had to pay for wood in several years.

This past weekend, we passed a 24"x24" square of 1/2 plywood on the side of the road.

I was shocked to see it there.

Should have stopped to get it.
 
House across the street went on the market Thursday. Priced 25% higher then last years prices. Had over thirty offers in two days.
The Realtor was even worried it would be hard to get the appraisal that high.....
Settled on the one where buyers pay all cash (plus additional bump up 10%) for home and fees, no inspection. No worries about appraisals from buyers also. All Cash!

See my property taxes going up now.
we moved in here 4 years ago...lady next door lost her hubby so 2 years after we moved in, sold and hit new mex. she asked for, and got in a day, 187K 2 'kids' moved in, mid to late 20's with GOOD paying jobs, like a quarter mil annual earnings combined. they started starting a family so moved closer to work and her mom and listed the house after 20 months. we paid attention cuz both sides of us our comps are recent. they listed for 204. realtor pounded signs on saturday. house went up monday am 204K ask. all day monday it was like the house was giving away heisenbergs blue meth. over 40 offers. they accepted the 240K one at 5pm. the older kids (mid 30's) that moved in have good jobs, not as good as the last couple, but good. they came from a tiny apt. they want to start a family, they have nothing, no mower, no spreader, only 3 rooms of furniture, no idea how to even paint.
 
no kidding? EVERY drop of fuel in your town comes from united in warren except for sheetz which comes from brad penn and every drop of crude comes from the oil fields a few miles north and there is no global competition and they dont ship long distance. I hate how they rip us off.

it'd be a thread hijack....maybe start a new thread.....but there is more on the journey of oil exploration to the pump than what most know. It's not just evil business.
 
it'd be a thread hijack....maybe start a new thread.....but there is more on the journey of oil exploration to the pump than what most know. It's not just evil business.
he and I are both in PA. they dont have to explore jack. we are a next exporter of oil and gas, it just oozes out. (ok with a little help) but our extraction cost is well under half, perhaps 1/3 of the current market. we literally have a town called 'oil city' and not because young 'ladies' slathered up with baby oil and danced nekkid on stage....
 
I just got back from five weeks in Seattle, selling off all the stuff my dad had stored in and around his shop (he died last summer at 90). He was a wood hoarder. There was a LOT of lumber, OSB in odd sizes, plywood, etc.

We ended up getting about $700 from just the lumber alone. It turned into a bit of a feeding frenzy. There is STILL a lot left.

Meanwhile, my son works in construction in Seattle. Because handling it by hourly workers is too expensive, wood used for temporary uses like concrete forms, supports, etc. is simply thrown away after use. He is dumbfounded by the quantity of perfectly good lumber they throw away on a daily basis.

Meanwhile, nobody should be surprised by the price inflation. When the government prints money by the trillions and rains them down from heaven, this is ALWAYS followed by price inflation. Sometimes hyper-inflation.

Regarding the US now, the next step is Carter era interest rates. I recommend not buying a house and selling the one you have NOW, and move into a rental (unless you are in a rural area or in a unique place or plan on dying in the house you are currently in). People buy a payment, not a price. Higher interest rates will depress prices, probably causing a collapse worse than the one in 2008. But that precedes the buying opportunity. And when you buy while rates are high, your price is low. And when rates go back down, you can refinance. :)

This isn't my first rodeo. I was posting on Seattlebubble.com back in 2007-2008 and learned a lot about how this works by watching that one play out, not to mention the stuff I lived through in the Carter/Reagan years.

But yeah, get what you can right now, because it's gonna be a LOT more expensive quite soon.

And then there is this:
Gasoline shortages have begun…
 
every american who has a work ethic, a sense of responsibility, pride, respect, law abiding, and individual drive for integrity and character.....knows EXACTLY what is going on, why, and who is driving this destruction.

and they're a lot of characters in 'Whoville' !
 
every american who has a work ethic, a sense of responsibility, pride, respect, law abiding, and individual drive for integrity and character.....knows EXACTLY what is going on, why, and who is driving this destruction.
It's hard to discuss this topic without delving into politics, so I won't, but in the end, the pieces fall into place for all to see. Sometimes it takes decades, though.
 
I'm heading right now to pick up the keys to my new to me shack on an acre. Bought and paid for, property taxes 202 bucks a year.

:bye:
Mine are $248. You beat me!. That said, we did just get our new assessment, thanks to the new 30x60 shop. Looks like they are going up to closer to $400. :(
 
Depressing trip to Menard's yesterday:

Very poor selection of metal and plastic electrical boxes, prices high.
12-2 Romex, 75 cents a foot in 250 ft coils. Luckily, I have a hundred ft left that I bought at 25 cents a foot which I thought was plenty...

Varathane urethane products wiped out. Associate said they are having production problems.

Holes in shelves in all departments, very few customers. Unusual for Menard's.

And I had to look and see with my own eyes:
2 x 4's $8.00
5/8 osb $42

It's one thing reading about it, seeing it really puts it in perspective.
And that's just the Home Center...

To be honest, I'm concerned.
 
To be honest, I'm concerned.
Those with an understanding of history and paying attention to what is actually going down are concerned. There need to be more of us.

But then, we are just seeing what I and a LOT of people paying attention last summer were expecting to happen now. Having seen this play out in our own lifetimes in the past is a big help. ;)

This is just the beginning. With every passing day, more and more people will be "concerned" as this affects them personally. First in minor ways, then in serious ways.

I will avoid discussing the cause of this pending catastrophe as that violates forum rules (no political discussions). Rather, I'll just say that, whatever the cause, the boy scout motto is at play here: Be prepared.
 
My question is:

Who is buying these $280,000 1200 sq/ft houses that were $120,000 two years ago (and $80,000 two years before that), and now require $54,000 as a down payment?

Certainly not the unemployed droves.

Certainly not frequent "Amscott" cash advance customers.

Certainly not the 85% of Americans that have $300 or less in savings.

Certainly not the "move back to mom and dad's basement" crowd.

Certainly not the "can't find a job with my new liberal arts degree I owe $120,000 for" crowd.

How are there enough buyers to fuel the bubble?

4N$


Mine are $248. You beat me!. That said, we did just get our new assessment, thanks to the new 30x60 shop. Looks like they are going up to closer to $400. :(

My two ½ acre lots are $19 for the one, $75 for the one my mobile home is on.

Every year I take a C note to the tax office and get change back.
 
lets add a new one: paper freaking plates.

chutzpah (hootz-pah) n. 1) walmart getting $10 for 50 paper plates.
 
he and I are both in PA. they dont have to explore jack. we are a next exporter of oil and gas, it just oozes out. (ok with a little help) but our extraction cost is well under half, perhaps 1/3 of the current market. we literally have a town called 'oil city' and not because young 'ladies' slathered up with baby oil and danced nekkid on stage....

I live in harrisburg.....grew up in northwest La. (an oil and gas mecca) in the day.....flew for an independent oil producer and was a " landman" when not flying. I understand,on a basic nature, the intricacies of exploration, engineering, pre-drill, current drilling, and post drilling operations.....rules and regs, the infrastructure to support those operations.......and the costs.......it goes well beyond "exploring jack"......you just wanna argue and bluster...
.......you proved my point.....
 
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